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7/14/2006
This "best trade" is a continuation of previous "Best trade" newsletter posted (sent to MV subscribers) on July 13, 2006 where we left a QQQQ Call position open. For this “Best trade”, "Buy Calls" trade is opened Below you will find a Table of Trade Motivations and a chart showing the trades, including detailed trade calculations. In Table 1 - a ''Table of Trade Motivators'' - we show the motivating factors that led us to take the above trades. Table 1: Table of Trade Motivators SBV Oscillator dropped below minus 33% and rallied to about that level back on July 11, 2006 around 11:30 EST (see NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart with 240-min VMA). This reveals that the accumulation phase of the buying volume during July 10, 11, 2006 has finished and there is a big chance of a trend reversal to a point at which the buying volume accumulated during the last two days is compensated for at least by a similar accumulation of selling volume. We found that it was a safe to close all open calls options and buy puts. By the end of the session the SBV Oscillator dropped below minus 33% and we left "Buy Puts" trade opened in order to close it later when SBV Oscillator advance above minus 33% (NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart with 240-min VMA). The SBV Oscillator dropped below minus 33% and rallied to about that level back on July 13, 2006 around 11:00 EST (see NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart with 240-min VMA). This reveals that there is a big chance of a trend reversal. We found that it was a safe to close all open put options and buy calls. We left "Buy Calls" trade opened in order to close it later if the index moves in our favor. High-magnitude buying surges were noted in all market sectors. The NASDAQ 100 (1/10) PVO was 39.3%, indicating that the volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the previous 10 trading days by 39.3%. The (1/10) PVO for S&P 500 was 15%, for the Dow Jones Industrial it was - 16%. On this day the call we bought on July 13, 2006 dropped in price to $0.90 per contract and we decided to strengthen our position by buying cheaper then we had bought earlier calls. We left "Buy Calls" trade opened in order to close it later if the index moves in our favor. Below we list in detail the actual trades made, along with the netted returns achieved. 07/05/2006 07/11/2006 07/12/2006 07/12/2006 07/13/2006 07/13/2006 07/14/2006 Total:
in order to close them later with profit if the index moves in our favor.Chart 2: NASDAQ 100 SBV Oscillator - July, 2006.
Date Trading
DecisionMotivation 07/11/06 Buy Calls High-magnitude buying surges were noted in all market sectors. The NASDAQ 100 (1/10) PVO was 34.2%, indicating that the volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the previous 10 trading days by 34.2%. The (1/10) PVO for S&P 500 was 21%, for the Dow Jones Industrial it was - 16%. 07/12/06 Sell Calls SBV oscillator railed above plus 33% and dropped below that level backon July 12, 2006 around 11:00 EST (see NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart with 240-min VMA). This reveals that there is a big chance of a short-term correction down. Buy Puts 07/13/06 Sell Puts High-magnitude buying surges were noted in all market sectors. The NASDAQ 100 (1/10) PVO was 25.5%, indicating that the volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the previous 10 trading days by 34.2%. The (1/10) PVO for S&P 500 was 25%, for the Dow Jones Industrial it was - 20%. Buy Calls 07/14/06 Buy Calls The SBV Oscillator dropped below minus 33% and rallied to about that level back on July 14, 2006 around 10:40 EST (see NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart with 240-min VMA). This reveals that there is a big chance of a trend reversal.
Table 2: Details of the tradesDate Trade Strike Expiration Contracts Contract
PriceAmount Buy QQQIL Calls $38 Sep. 2006 70 $1.55 -$10,850 Buy QQQIL Calls $38 Sep. 2006 110 $1.00 -$11,000 Sell QQQIL Calls $38 Sep. 2006 180 $1.05 +$18,900 Buy QQQUK Puts $37 Sep. 2006 120 $0.95 -$11,400 Sell QQQUK Puts $37 Sep. 2006 120 $1.40 +$16,800 Buy QQQIK Calls $37 Sep. 2006 90 $1.30 Open Position Buy QQQIK Calls $37 Sep. 2006 130 $0.90 Open Position +$2,450
7/14/2006
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