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9/11/2006
12.5% in 3 trading days This "best trade" is a continuation of previous "Best trade" newsletter posted (sent to MV subscribers) onSeptember 6, 2006 where we left a QQQQ puts position open. Below you will find a Table of Trade Motivations and a chart showing the trades, including detailed trade calculations. In Table 1 - a ''Table of Trade Motivators'' - we show the motivating factors that led us to take the above trades. Table 1: Table of Trade Motivators On September 6, 2006 we noted extremely low market sentiment readings. The NASDAQ 100 advance/decline (A/D) issues ratio reached critical levels of 0.05 at the market open and advance/decline (A/D) volume ratio reached critical levels of 0.07 around noon. This revealed an extremely bearish market sentiment, indicating the market was oversold and thus prone to trend reversals. The NASDAQ 100 SBV Oscillator dropped below minus 33% and rallied to about that level back on September 6, 2006 (see NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart with 240-min VMA). This reveals that there is a big chance of a trend reversal. We left "Buy Calls" trade opened in order to close it later if the index moves in our favor. Below we list in detail the actual trades made, along with the netted returns achieved. 09/06/2006 09/11/2006 Profit: Security Return Calls (QQQQ - QQQLM) +12.5% Chart 1: NASDAQ 100 SBV Oscillator
September, 2006. 15-day View, 240-min VMA.
Date Trading
DecisionMotivation 09/06/06 Buy Calls High-magnitude buying surges were noted in all market sectors. The NASDAQ 100 (1/10) PVO was 18.3%, indicating that the volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the previous 10 trading days by 18.3%. The (1/10) PVO for S&P 500 was 17%, for the Dow Jones Industrial it was - 16%. The biggest volume surge was noted in Amex Oil and Transport market sectors. The Amex Oil Index (1/10) PVO was 54.9%, the DJT index (1/10) PVO was 44.1% 09/11/06 Sell Calls High-magnitude selling surges were noted in NASDAQ 100 sector. The NASDAQ 100 (1/10) PVO was 7.6%, indicating that the volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the previous 10 trading days by 7.6%. This reveals that there is a chance of a short-term correction down and we found that it was a safe to close all open calls options.
Table 2: Details of the tradesDate Trade Strike Expiration Contracts Contract
PriceAmount Buy QQQLM Calls $39 Dec. 2006 70 $1.60 -$11,200 Sell QQQLM Calls $39 Dec. 2006 70 $1.80 +$12,600 +$1,400 (12.5%)
9/11/2006
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