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5/1/2007
This "best trade" is a continuation of previous "Best trade" newsletter posted (sent to MV subscribers) on April 26, 2007 where we left a QQQQ calls position open. Below you will find a Table of Trade Motivations and a chart showing the trades, including detailed trade calculations. In Table 1 - a ''Table of Trade Motivators'' - we show the motivating factors that led us to take the above trades. Table 1: Table of Trade Motivators Big selling volume surge was noted in period between 13:30 and 14:40 The SBV oscillator declines below plus 33% (after having been above that level) based on the NASDAQ 100 60-day SBV(20) chart. This reveals that there is a chance of a short-term move down and we bought put options. The last time similar volume surge in NASDAQ 100 sector was seen on February 27, 2007. Below we list in detail the actual trades made, along with the netted returns achieved. 04/17/2007 04/26/2007 05/01/2007 05/01/2007 Profit: In this example, we have based our QQQQ options trade on the NASDAQ 100 volume indicators (PVO, SBV Oscillator). Using the principles outlined above, you may wish to trade options on the SPY, ^SPX, DIAMONDS (DIA). It is also conceivable that an analysis similar to the one shown below could be used to trade options based on the NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and other indexes. Chart 1: NASDAQ 100 SBV 15-day View
Date Trading
DecisionMotivation 4/13/2007 High-magnitude selling surges were noted in the NASDAQ 100 sector. The volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the previous 10 trading days by 14%. 4/17/2007 Buy Puts High-magnitude selling surges were noted in all market sectors. The NASDAQ 100 volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the previous 10 trading days by 14%. The S&P 500 by 12%, and the DJI by 20%. 4/20/2007 High-magnitude selling surges were noted in the DJI sector. The volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the previous 10 trading days by 46%. 4/25/2007 High-magnitude selling surges were noted in all market sectors. The NASDAQ 100 volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the previous 10 trading days by 44%. The S&P 500 by 21%. The DJT by 50%. 4/26/2007 Buy Puts High-magnitude selling surges were noted in the NASDAQ 100 sector. The volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the previous 10 trading days by 21%. 4/30/2007 High-magnitude buying volume surges were noted in the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 sectors within the last one and a half hour of the session. 5/1/2007 Sell Puts High-magnitude buying volume surges were noted in the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 sectors. The SBV Oscillator (see 15-day chart NASDAQ 100 SBV chart with bar period = 16) hit the last month lowest level of -68% and started to rise. This reveals that there is a chance of a short-term trend reversal and we sold previously bought puts.
Table 2: Details of the tradesDate Trade Strike Expiration Contracts Contract
PriceAmount Buy QQQRT Puts $46 June, 2007 70 $1.47 -$10,290.00 Buy QQQSU Puts $47 July, 2007 70 $1.40 -$9,800.00 Sell QQQRT Puts $46 June, 2007 70 $1.10 +$7,700.00 Sell QQQSU Puts $47 July, 2007 70 $1.90 +$13,300.00 +$910.00
5/1/2007
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