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Chart of the Week: S&P 500
May 31, 2002
One of our most conservative
long-term traders
has made some very profitable trades over the past month. Based on our advice and analysis he was able
to make over $10,000 in the last month!
|
Security |
Return |
| SPX Call
(July) |
56% |
| SPX Put
(July) |
Holding |
|
Total Earnings: |
$10,900 |
The market has been fairly volatile in the
past few months, leading to up & down-trends which don't last as long as
they do in traditional market conditions. Generally, in the past, when the
market confirms a up or down-trend, this trend would continue for at least a
month. Recently up and down-trends have only lasted a few weeks at best.
This has forced even conservative long-term players to consider making
shorter-than-usual long-term trades. This can be seen in the Chart of the
Week archive, where and long-term trades made by our conservative long-term player have lasted a duration of weeks instead of months. Unusual
market conditions have contributed to this, and investors must adapt to
changing constantly conditions in order to keep up.

On May 7th, MarketVolume's Market Commentary confirmed
that the market was in the lower levels of it's support corridor.
Based on this news, and high volume levels on the downside of the S&P 500
index, our conservative long-term trader decided to play up by buying S&P
500 call options for the month of July. He decided to keep these call
options open until MarketVolume confirmed that the S&P 500 index was
approaching a resistance level. This resistance level was confirmed
when there was a great deal of volume to the S&P 500 index's upside. Our
conservative long-term player didn't want to take any chances on loosing
out; therefore, he waited until a downtrend was confirmed in MarketVolume's
market summary and by a large peak in volume on May 16th. Upon this
confirmation he closed his call positions, and opened a new put position and
is still holding this position open until a support level is confirmed.
The same principles mentioned above works
for trading NASDAQ 100, S&P 100, Dow Jones, and other indexes.
We would like to make it clear to our members
what the motivation for our professional trader was to make the above trades; therefore, we have created
what we call a 'Table of Motivations', in which we try to make it clear the
motivation that was behind each of the above trades.
|
Trade |
Motivation |
MV's Commentary on
Members Home Page during the trade |
|
Buy Call 1 |
Purchased SPX call options mostly due to visual
confirmation of a support level cause by the accumulation of a great
deal of volume to the downside. MarketVolume's Market Commentary was
also taken into consideration as it stated that the market is in a
support corridor. |
Volume over the past few days for the
NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 indexes has remained at unprecedented levels (60-day
chart using a 1-day VMA), in other words, volume has been critical.
Our analysis still concludes that the NASDAQ 100
and S&P 500 are in the lower levels of their support corridor. |
|
Sell Call 1 |
Sold all open call positions due to an unprecedented
amount of volume to the upside of the S&P 500 index. This volume
signaled a high level of resistance, thereby confirming the end of the
market's up-trend. MarketVolume's Market Commentary also noted that
the market has begun a down-trend. |
The market declined today and there was
not an appreciable amount of volume in either direction, leading us to
believe that the the market will begin a down-trend. |
Buy Put 2
Holding |
Due to the confirmation of a new down-trend for the S&P
500 index, found that a good conservative move would be to purchased
July put options and to hold them until MarketVolume confirms the end
of the down-trend in it's Market Commentary. |
Based on MarketVolume's analysis, our
professional investor was able to make the following returns:
|
Security |
Return |
| SPX Call
(July) |
56% |
| SPX Put
(July) |
Holding |
|
Total Earnings: |
$10,900 |
Here is a detailed list of our investor's
trades, which netted the above returns:
|
Date |
Put/
Call |
Ctrcts |
Contract
Price |
Index
Value |
Strike |
VMA
(1-day) |
Amount |
Profit |
| 5/5/02 |
B C1 |
10 |
$19.45 |
1,056.30 |
1,110 |
3,072,700 |
$19,450 |
|
|
5/21/02 |
S C1 |
10 |
$30.35 |
1,094.60 |
1,110 |
2,239,100 |
$30,350 |
+$10,900 |
| 5/21/02 |
B P2 |
20 |
$16.10 |
1,094.80 |
1,055 |
2,239,100 |
$32,200 |
Holding |
|
Total: |
+$10,900 |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
December 19,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
December 10, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 27, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 20,
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
November 13, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
November 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
October 25,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 25, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
September 18, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
September 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 21
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
August 14
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 7,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 31, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 24, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 17, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
July 10, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
June 26, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 14, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
June 12, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 5, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 31, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 29, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 17, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 15, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 8, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 3, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
May 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
April 28, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 3, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 25, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 8, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
January 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
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