Technical Analysis. Nasdaq 100,


Technical Analysis - NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500

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Chart of the Week:
S&P 500
May 31, 2002

One of our most conservative long-term traders has made some very profitable trades over the past month. Based on our advice and analysis he was able to make over $10,000 in the last month!

Security Return
SPX Call (July) 56%
SPX Put (July) Holding

Total Earnings:

$10,900

The market has been fairly volatile in the past few months, leading to up & down-trends which don't last as long as they do in traditional market conditions. Generally, in the past, when the market confirms a up or down-trend, this trend would continue for at least a month. Recently up and down-trends have only lasted a few weeks at best. This has forced even conservative long-term players to consider making shorter-than-usual long-term trades. This can be seen in the Chart of the Week archive, where and long-term trades made by our conservative long-term player have lasted a duration of weeks instead of months. Unusual market conditions have contributed to this, and investors must adapt to changing constantly conditions in order to keep up.

On May 7th, MarketVolume's Market Commentary confirmed that the market was in the lower levels of it's support corridor. Based on this news, and high volume levels on the downside of the S&P 500 index, our conservative long-term trader decided to play up by buying S&P 500 call options for the month of July. He decided to keep these call options open until MarketVolume confirmed that the S&P 500 index was approaching a resistance level. This resistance level was confirmed when there was a great deal of volume to the S&P 500 index's upside. Our conservative long-term player didn't want to take any chances on loosing out; therefore, he waited until a downtrend was confirmed in MarketVolume's market summary and by a large peak in volume on May 16th. Upon this confirmation he closed his call positions, and opened a new put position and is still holding this position open until a support level is confirmed.

The same principles mentioned above works for trading NASDAQ 100, S&P 100, Dow Jones, and other indexes.

We would like to make it clear to our members what the motivation for our professional trader was to make the above trades; therefore, we have created what we call a 'Table of Motivations', in which we try to make it clear the motivation that was behind each of the above trades.

Trade Motivation MV's Commentary on Members Home Page during the trade
Buy Call 1 Purchased SPX call options mostly due to visual confirmation of a support level cause by the accumulation of a great deal of volume to the downside. MarketVolume's Market Commentary was also taken into consideration as it stated that the market is in a support corridor. Volume over the past few days for the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 indexes has remained at unprecedented levels (60-day chart using a 1-day VMA), in other words, volume has been critical. Our analysis still concludes that the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 are in the lower levels of their support corridor.
Sell Call 1 Sold all open call positions due to an unprecedented amount of volume to the upside of the S&P 500 index. This volume signaled a high level of resistance, thereby confirming the end of the market's up-trend. MarketVolume's Market Commentary also noted that the market has begun a down-trend. The market declined today and there was not an appreciable amount of volume in either direction, leading us to believe that the the market will begin a down-trend.
Buy Put 2
Holding
Due to the confirmation of a new down-trend for the S&P 500 index, found that a good conservative move would be to purchased July put options and to hold them until MarketVolume confirms the end of the down-trend in it's Market Commentary.

 

Based on MarketVolume's analysis, our professional investor was able to make the following returns:

Security Return
SPX Call (July) 56%
SPX Put (July) Holding

Total Earnings:

$10,900

Here is a detailed list of our investor's trades, which netted the above returns:

Date Put/
Call
Ctrcts Contract
Price
Index
Value
Strike VMA
(1-day)
Amount Profit
5/5/02 B C1 10 $19.45 1,056.30 1,110 3,072,700 $19,450
5/21/02 S C1 10 $30.35 1,094.60 1,110 2,239,100 $30,350 +$10,900
5/21/02 B P2 20 $16.10 1,094.80 1,055 2,239,100 $32,200 Holding

Total:

+$10,900

To see any of our past best trades, simply select from the list below.

Date Indicator
December 30, 2002 NASDAQ 100
December 19, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
December 10, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 27, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 20, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
November 13, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 6, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
November 1, 2002 NASDAQ 100
October 25, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
September 25, 2002 NASDAQ 100
September 18, 2002 S&P 500
September 6, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 21 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
August 14 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 7, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
July 31, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
July 24, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
July 17, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
July 10, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
June 26, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
June 14, 2002 S&P 500
June 12, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
June 5, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
May 31, 2002 S&P 500
May 29, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 22, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 17, 2002 S&P 500
May 15, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 8, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
May 3, 2002 NASDAQ 100
May 1, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
April 28, 2002 NASDAQ 100
April 22, 2002 NASDAQ 100
April 3, 2002 S&P 500
February 25, 2002 S&P 500
February 8, 2002 NASDAQ 100
January 30, 2002 NASDAQ 100
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