|
|
 |
Best Mid-Term Trade: November
20, 2002
This week we made some good
mid-term NASDAQ 100 options trades (QQQQ trading would be very similar) where our professional trader was able to purchase
calls based on some strong signals and what we published in our Market Commentary.
NOTE: This chart
of the week is meant mainly for educational purposes only. We don't
recommend that our customers follow these exact trades. We suggest that you
develop your own trading style and try doing some paper trading before using
our volume analytics.
|
Security |
Return |
| Call 1 (NDX
Jan) |
+21.1% |
| Call
2 (NDX Jan) |
+43.9% |
| Call
3 (NDX Jan) |
Holding |
|
Total Profit: |
+$15,771 |

Even though all the above trades were not
entirely without risk, we came out on top with a
profit of
$15,771
Why buy expensive January Calls?
Even though January Call options are more
expensive, they tend of to be less volatile in reaction to market swings,
and they don't devalue as quickly as a current month option. By trading
options that are at least one month ahead, we protect ourselves from
unforeseen short-term fluctuations in the market. Also, if the uptrend
continues on a long-term, one can hold these options for a longer period
as they increase substantially in value.
Can I play short on large VMA spikes?
We don't generally suggest that anyone play short
during an uptrend in the market unless you are an experienced short-term
trader. Since the market is in an uptrend, VMA spikes to the upside may
sometimes have a lesser effect on causing the market to move lower.
Therefore, if you do play short, we suggest that you do not overestimate
the value of VMA spikes to the upside of an index.
Why did you leave one call option
open?
We still have confidence that the market will
move higher, and since the market has not shown any signs of reversing its
current uptrend, we think it's a good idea to continue on the premise that
the market will move higher still.
Should I Trade Options?
Only very experienced traders should trade
options because of the high risk. You can always trade index shares
instead of options and still make profits; returns will not be as large.
We would like to make it clear to our
members what the motivation was to make the above trades; therefore, we
have created what we Call a 'Table of Motivation', in which we try to make
it clear the motivation that was behind each of the above trades.
|
Trade |
Motivation |
MV's Commentary on
Members Home Page during the trade |
|
Buy
Call 1 |
Due to elevated amounts of volume as the
index declined, found that this is an excellent point to buy call
options. |
As the market moved higher today there was a moderate amount resistive
volume spikes, and due to this volume the market could move lower in
the short-term. Keep in mind that the volume levels to the upside were
not very large today, and due to this the resistive volume we saw
today may have no effect on the market in the short-term, therefore we
may see the market continue its uptrend. |
|
Sell
Call 1 |
Volume was increasing steadily at the
end of the market the previous day, and due to this it was a good idea
to close all open call positions in preparation for the market to move
lower. |
We expect that if the market moved slightly lower we will see more
supportive volume that will once again move the market higher. Also,
remember that during an uptrend one should not overestimate the value
of volume to the upside. Basically we expect the market to continue in
its general uptrend in the mid-term. |
|
Buy Call 2 |
Excellent and clear VMA spikes to the
downside were the main motivation in purchasing these calls, as the
VMA spikes were large and acted as very clear signals that the market
will move higher. |
During the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 index's last decline we saw a
moderately large amount of supportive volume, and this supportive
volume may cause the indexes to move higher in the short-term. In the
mid-term, we still expect that the market will continue on its
uptrend. |
|
Buy Call 3 |
|
Sell Call 2 |
Due to elevated amounts of volume during
the entire day, which can be expected on days like this, decided that
a safe play would be to close 1/2 of open call positions and to wait
and see what the market brings in the next few days. |
Today the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes moved slightly lower, but in
doing so it did not generate much supportive volume. Today there was a
moderate amount of resistive volume to the upside as the index moved
higher in the afternoon, and this resistive volume caused the market
to move lower. |
The same principles mentioned above works
for trading S&P 500, S&P 100, Dow Jones, and other indexes.
Here is a detailed list of our investor's
trades, which netted the above returns:
|
Date |
Put/
Call |
Ctrcts |
Contract
Price |
Index
Value |
Strike |
VMA |
Amount |
Profit |
|
11/15/02 |
B C1 |
5 |
$44.57 |
1,042.46 |
1,100 |
1,807,400 |
$22,285 |
|
|
11/18/02 |
S C1 |
5 |
$53.95 |
1,067.93 |
1,100 |
1,638,500 |
$26,975 |
$4,690 |
|
11/19/02 |
B C2 |
7 |
$36.07 |
1,026.40 |
1,100 |
1,471,700 |
$25,249 |
|
|
11/19/02 |
B C3 |
7 |
$36.44 |
1,027.28 |
1,100 |
1,455,000 |
$25,508 |
|
|
11/20/02 |
S C2 |
7 |
$51.90 |
1,065.80 |
1,100 |
1,670,600 |
$36,330 |
$11,081 |
|
Total: |
+$15,771 |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
December 19,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
December 10, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 27, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 20,
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
November 13, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
November 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
October 25,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 25, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
September 18, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
September 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 21
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
August 14
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 7,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 31, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 24, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 17, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
July 10, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
June 26, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 14, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
June 12, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 5, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 31, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 29, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 17, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 15, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 8, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 3, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
May 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
April 28, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 3, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 25, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 8, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
January 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
|
 |
|