|
|
 |
Best Mid-Term Trade:
January 29, 2003
For the last week, we made some good short-term S&P 500
options trades
in which our professional trader was able
to purchase puts based on strong volume signals and our published
Market
Commentary.
NOTE: This chart of the week is meant mainly for educational
purposes only. We don't recommend that our customers follow these exact trades.
We suggest that you develop your own trading style and try doing some paper trading
before using our volume analytics.
|
Security |
Return |
| Put 1 (SPX April) |
+41.0% |
| Put 2 (SPX April) |
Holding |
| Put 3 (SPX April) |
Holding |
|
Total Profit:
|
+$7,680 |

Even though all the above trades were not entirely without risk,
we came out on top with a profit of
$7,680
Should I Trade Options?
Only very experienced traders should trade options because of the high risk.
You can always trade index shares instead of options and still make profits;
returns will not be as large.
Why did you open two more positions right after a very
positive State of the Union address?
Because MarketVolume, in its Market Commentary, still believes that the
market is in a downtrend and will soon continue on that trend. There were two
significant resistive VMA spikes to the upside as well, and these spikes also
aided in the decision to open two more positions. Even if the market moves
higher in the short-term, we purchased options that don't expire for three
months, thereby reducing our risk.
Why didn't you sell PUT 1 on the first VMA spike to the
downside?
We decided not to sell because we didn't believe that that volume spike was
enough to counter the many cumulative resistive VMA spikes we had previously
seen. At best, that VMA spike could have caused a short-term move up, but not
for more than a day. We sold on the second VMA spike because, added with the
previous spike, it could cause the market to move higher in the short-term.
I trade the NASDAQ 100 / QQQQ. How does this apply to me?
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes have generally the same behavior. If you
overlaid a chart of each of them during a short period such as this one, their
general dynamic would be the same. Because of this, you can trade NASDAQ 100
index shares and options. You can probably make more money doing so because the NASDAQ 100
is more volatile.
Should I try to paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try doing
some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable with
interpreting our signals.
Why buy puts that are so far 'out of the money'?
The reason we decided to go with April SPX puts with a strike of 725 is simply
because those happened to be the most liquid (easy to buy and sell quickly at a
reasonable price) put options available for March.
We would like to make it clear to our members what the motivations
were that lead to the above trades; therefore, we have created what we Call a 'Table of
Motivation', in which we try to make it clear the motivation that was behind each
of the above trades.
|
Trade |
Motivation |
MV's
Commentary on Members Home Page during the trade |
| Buy Put 1 |
Because of the
moderately large amount of resistive volume, and the lack of much supportive
volume, and MarketVolume's Market Commentary, this was an excellent point to
enter the market with a put option. |
as
the market moved higher, an increasing amount of resistive volume to the
upside was generated. At midday, the market moved lower in response to the
large VMA spike that had been building up throughout the morning. There was
very little supportive volume throughout the day today. |
| Sell Put 1 |
At this point the
market had already declined a substantial amount and there was a good chance
that the moderate amount of supportive volume at the bottom could cause the
market to move higher. MarketVolume's Market Commentary also mentioned that
if there was enough supportive volume the market would move higher. Sold all
open positions and will purchase more if the market moves higher and
generates a good signal. |
Today as the market moved lower, there was a moderate amount of supportive
volume that may cause the market to move higher in the short-term, but our
mid-term outlook remains the same; the market is in a downtrend. Please keep
in mind that before the general trend changes, we will need to see more
supportive volume than we have been seeing. |
| Buy Put 2 |
As the market moved
higher there was a large resistive VMA spike to the upside that signaled the
market should move lower soon. This is a good signal to enter into another
put option position. |
Today there was a small amount of resistive
volume and very little supportive volume during the day. Because of this,
the market may continue moving higher in response to the cumulative effects
of supportive VMA spikes... |
| Buy Put 3 |
Since the market
did not move lower in response to the last VMA spike, and there was a new
resistive VMA spike to the upside, found that this was another good pint to
purchase more puts and average down the price. |
The same principles mentioned above works for trading
NASDAQ 100, S&P 100, Dow Jones, and other indexes.
Here is a detailed list of our investor's
trades, which netted the above returns:
|
Date |
Put/
Call |
Ctrcts |
Contract
Price |
Index
Value |
Strike |
VMA |
Amount |
Profit |
| 1/23/03 |
B P1 |
20 |
$9.36 |
885.25 |
725 |
3,414,300 |
$18,720 |
|
|
1/27/03 |
S P1 |
20 |
$13.20 |
849.16 |
725 |
3,341,400 |
$26,400 |
|
| 1/29/03 |
B P2 |
20 |
$11.32 |
860.29 |
725 |
3,890,700 |
$22,640 |
|
|
1/29/03 |
B P3 |
20 |
$10.36 |
867.65 |
725 |
2,756,100 |
$20,720 |
$7,680 |
|
Total: |
+$7,680 |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 21, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 14,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 7,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 30,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 23,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 9, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 31,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 24,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 17,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 10,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
October 3, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 25,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 16, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 11,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 5,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 27, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 15,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 4,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 28, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 25, 2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 12, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 2, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
June 27, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 28,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 11,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
March 4, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 12,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 4,
2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 29,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
January 24, 2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 22,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
December 19,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
December 10, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 27, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 20,
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
November 13, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
November 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
October 25,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 25, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
September 18, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
September 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 21
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
August 14
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 7,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 31, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 24, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 17, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
July 10, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
June 26, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 14, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
June 12, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 5, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 31, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 29, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 17, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 15, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 8, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 3, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
May 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
April 28, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 3, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 25, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 8, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
January 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
|
 |
|