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Chart of the Week: SPX
February 4, 2003
Our mid-term trader has made some profitable
trades recently. Based on our advice and analysis, he was able to make a
$13,720 return over two weeks!
|
Security |
Return |
| Put 1 (SPX April) |
+41.0% |
| Put 2 (SPX April) |
+9.1% |
| Put 3 (SPX April) |
+19.21% |
|
Total Profit:
|
+$13,720 |
In this week's Chart of the Week we continue with where we
left off, in last week's Best Trade, by closing all open positions. Over the past few weeks, the market has
been down as our Market Commentary predicted. Our professional mid-term
trader was able to make several profitable trades, based on
MarketVolume's Market Commentary and some very clear volume signals. Since the market is currently in a
downtrend, our trader went short on the market by buying puts, even though there were some points he
could have theoretically gone long. It is safer to go short in a down-trending
market even if you are a day-trader. It has been an excellent couple of weeks
for short traders as MarketVolume's predictions have been very accurate.
Basically,
this Chart of the Week is an excellent
example of MarketVolume's abilities to predict the market!
As you can
see, we bought 2 puts on January 29th, and closing them today, February 4th,
brought us a good deal of profit! To see the previous Best Trade that led to these
trades
click here.

Motivations behind Trades: The primary motivation for the
above trades was MarketVolume's Market Commentary, which predicted a long-term
downtrend, and to make conservative mid-term trades that could be
backed up with very clear volume signals. Every time we purchased a put options, our trader
waited for the index to move higher; and if there was an appreciable VMA
spike to the upside, he would make a purchase. On all of the sell points
(closing the put contract), you can
see that there were some supportive VMA spikes to the downside. In
general, if trader wants to play it as safely as possible, he would close his open
positions on just such a signal. The most important factor was MarketVolume's
Market Stage and Market Status sections of the Market Commentary, where the
forecast was for a downtrend.
How can this chart be used by me?
Our main reason for publishing these charts is to allow our members to learn
by another trader's example how they can make trades based on our volume signals and Market Commentary.
Members can gain a better understanding of how to enter and exit the market,
based on when a signal is generated. To learn from these charts, you don't need to
trade the specific security mentioned in this publication, but whatever security
you feel comfortable with. The principles for trading QQQQ shares will not change
when trading something like S&P 500 futures.
I trade the NASDAQ 100 / QQQQ. How does this apply to me?
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes have generally the same behavior. If you
overlaid a chart of each of them during a short period such as this one, their
general dynamic would be the same. Because of this, you can trade NASDAQ 100
index shares and options. You can probably make more money doing so because the NASDAQ 100
is more volatile.
Can I trade Rydex or ProFund index funds using your Market
Commentary and signals?
Yes, our system is meant for index traders, and there are many Mutual Fund
options to choose from when trading indexes. So yes, our
indicators are good for trading Mutual Funds, especially dynamic Rydex funds.
Should I try to
paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try
doing some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable
with interpreting our signals.
Why buy puts that are so far 'out of the money'?
The reason we decided to go with April SPX puts with a strike of 725 is simply
because those happened to be the most liquid (easy to buy and sell quickly at a
reasonable price) put options available for March.
Conclusion: Our mid-term
trader, based on our Market Commentaries and Volume Signals, thinks the market will
probably continue on a downtrend. But to play it safe, he decided to close his outstanding
positions in light of recent international news and events.
The same principles mentioned above work for trading
NASDAQ 100, S&P 100, Dow Jones, and other indexes.
Here is a detailed list of our investor's
trades, which netted the above returns:
|
Date |
Put/
Call |
Ctrcts |
Contract
Price |
Index
Value |
Strike |
VMA |
Amount |
Profit |
| 1/23/03 |
B P1 |
20 |
$9.36 |
885.25 |
725 |
3,414,300 |
$18,720 |
|
|
1/27/03 |
S P1 |
20 |
$13.20 |
849.16 |
725 |
3,341,400 |
$26,400 |
$7,680 |
| 1/29/03 |
B P2 |
20 |
$11.32 |
860.29 |
725 |
3,890,700 |
$22,640 |
|
|
1/29/03 |
B P3 |
20 |
$10.36 |
867.65 |
725 |
2,756,100 |
$20,720 |
|
| 2/4/03 |
S P2 |
20 |
$12.35 |
844.01 |
725 |
2,735,500 |
$24,700 |
$2,060 |
|
2/4/03 |
S P3 |
20 |
$12.35 |
844.01 |
725 |
2,735,500 |
$24,700 |
$3,980 |
|
Total: |
+$13,720 |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 21, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 14,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 7,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 30,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 23,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 9, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 31,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 24,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 17,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 10,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
October 3, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 25,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 16, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 11,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 5,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 27, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 15,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 4,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 28, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 25, 2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 12, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 2, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
June 27, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 28,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 11,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
March 4, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 12,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 4,
2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 29,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
January 24, 2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 22,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
December 19,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
December 10, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 27, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 20,
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
November 13, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
November 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
October 25,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 25, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
September 18, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
September 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 21
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
August 14
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 7,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 31, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 24, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 17, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
July 10, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
June 26, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 14, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
June 12, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 5, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 31, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 29, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 17, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 15, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 8, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 3, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
May 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
April 28, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 3, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 25, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 8, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
January 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
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