Technical Analysis. Nasdaq 100,


Technical Analysis - NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500

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Best Long-Term Trade:
March
4, 2003

Our short-term conservative index trader was able to make some promising trades with NASDAQ 100 index options - NDX (same would apply for QQQQ options). With these trades, our professional based his decision on strong volume signals and our published Market Commentary.

NOTE: This chart of the week is meant mainly for educational purposes. We don't recommend that our customers follow these exact trades. We suggest that you develop your own trading style and try doing some paper trading before using our volume analytics.

Security Return
NDX Call 1 (April) +10.8%
NDX Call 2 (April) +11.2%

Total Profit:

+$4,400

Even though all the above trades were not entirely without risk, we came out on top with a profit of $4,400

How can this chart be used by me?
Our main reason for publishing these charts is to allow our members to learn by another trader's example  how they can make trades based on our volume signals and Market Commentary. Members can gain a better understanding of how to enter and exit the market, based on when a signal is generated. To learn from these charts, you don't need to trade the specific security mentioned in this publication, but whatever security you feel comfortable with. The principles for trading QQQQ shares will not change when trading something like S&P 500 futures.

I trade the S&P 500 / SPDRs. How does this apply to me?
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes have generally the same behavior. If you overlaid a chart of each of them during a short period such as this one, their general dynamic would be the same. Because of this, you can trade S&P 500 index shares, and options.

Why did you trade against the current trend?
Our trader decided to take advantage of short-term movements in the market. This by no means invalidates the fact that the prevailing trend was down. When the market is in a downtrend, there are always points where excellent buy signals are generated; therefore, our trader decided to take advantage of these signals. Also, MarketVolume's Market Stage mentioned that the market could be entering a support corridor, which means that the market will be increasingly volatile, excellent for short-term trading. Generally we don't recommend trading against the current trend unless you are a very skilled trader.

Should I try to paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try doing some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable with interpreting our signals.

Can I trade Rydex or ProFund  index funds using your Market Commentary and signals?
Yes, our system is meant for index traders, and there are many Mutual Fund options to choose from when  trading indexes. So yes, our indicators are good for trading Mutual Funds, especially dynamic Rydex funds.

What is a 'VMA spike to the upside'?
Simply put, that means that most of the VMA spike was connected with the index while it was moving up.

We would like to make clear to our members the motivations that led to the above trades. We have created what we call a 'Table of Motivation', in which we try to make clear the purpose behind each of the above trades.

Trade Motivation MV's Commentary on Members Home Page during the trade
Buy Call 1 According to MarketVolume's Market Commentary, the market could easily move up if there were any significant supportive VMA spikes to the downside. There was a moderately large VMA spike to the downside today, which lead to the decision to purchase NDX calls for short-term gain. Also, since MarketVolume's Market Status in the Market Commentary has changed its outlook, stating that the market could be entering a support corridor, which means that the market will be increasingly volatile; excellent for short-term trading. Our outlook for the mid and long-term is that the market will continue in its current downtrend, but short-term corrections up may be caused by significant VMA spikes to the downside.
Sell Call 1 Based on the fact that the market was moving up quickly, and that there was a moderately large resistive VMA spike to the upside, decided to play safe and sell open NDX calls. MarketVolume's Market Commentary also mentioned that a VMA spike like this could move the market lower. In the short-term, due to the supportive volume we saw today, the market may move a bit higher, but it will then continue to move lower as a result of more resistive volume to the upside.
Buy Call 2 After having had moved up quite a bit, the market moved lower, and with that there was a substantial supportive VMA spike to the downside. This supportive VMA spike was a definite short-term buy signal despite the fact that the market was in a downtrend. MarketVolume's Market Commentary also mentioned the possibility that the market could move higher after such a volume spike. Overall, we still believe that the market has not shown sufficient signs of changing its current downtrend; therefore, we believe that in the mid-term the market will continue to move down.
Sell Call 2 After having opened substantially higher, there were increasing amounts of resistive volume to the upside; this volume signals that the market could move lower in the short-term. Since there was very little supportive volume in the morning, decided to close all open positions. Recently, the market's behavior has been changing, and the evidence to date seems to suggest we may be in a support corridor, but this is, as of yet, unconfirmed. The market's trend will become clearer as more volume accumulates. If we see more resistive volume in the short-term, this may also trigger a short-term correction down to retest recent lows.

The same principles mentioned above works for trading S&P 500, S&P 100, Dow Jones, and other indexes.

Here is a detailed list of our investor's trades, which netted the above returns:

Date Put/
Call
Ctrcts Contract
Price
Index
Value
Strike VMA Amount Profit
02/26/03 B C1 10 $17.65 984.66 1,100 1,318,000 $17,650
02/27/03 S C1 10 $19.59 995.25 1,100 1,292,700 $19,570 $1,920
02/28/03 B C2 10 $22.14 1,005.04 1,100 1,553,900 $22,140
03/03/03 S C2 10 $24.62 1,019.21 1,100 1,166,100 $24,620 $2,480

Total:

+$4,400

To see any of our past best trades, simply select from the list below.

Date Indicator
December 21, 2003 QQQQ Options
December 14, 2003 QQQQ Options
December 7, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 30, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 23, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 9, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 31, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 24, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 17, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 10, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
October 3, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 25, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 16, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 11, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
September 5, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 27, 2003 QQQQ Options
August 15, 2003 QQQQ Options
August 4, 2003 QQQQ Options
July 28, 2003 NASDAQ 100
July 25, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
July 12, 2003 NASDAQ 100
July 2, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
June 27, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
March 28, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
March 11, 2003 NASDAQ 100
March 4, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
February 12, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
February 4, 2003 S&P 500
January 29, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
January 24, 2003 S&P 500
January 22, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

To see any of our past best trades, simply select from the list below.

Date Indicator
December 30, 2002 NASDAQ 100
December 19, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
December 10, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 27, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 20, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
November 13, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 6, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
November 1, 2002 NASDAQ 100
October 25, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
September 25, 2002 NASDAQ 100
September 18, 2002 S&P 500
September 6, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 21 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
August 14 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 7, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
July 31, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
July 24, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
July 17, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
July 10, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
June 26, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
June 14, 2002 S&P 500
June 12, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
June 5, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
May 31, 2002 S&P 500
May 29, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 22, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 17, 2002 S&P 500
May 15, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 8, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
May 3, 2002 NASDAQ 100
May 1, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
April 28, 2002 NASDAQ 100
April 22, 2002 NASDAQ 100
April 3, 2002 S&P 500
February 25, 2002 S&P 500
February 8, 2002 NASDAQ 100
January 30, 2002 NASDAQ 100
QQQQ Trading System
QQQQ, SPY and DIA trading signals for conservative mid- and long-7 term traders ...

QQQQ Signals
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Compound Compound
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As of 3/10/2010


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