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Best Long-Term Trade:
March 4, 2003
Our short-term conservative index trader was able to
make some promising trades with NASDAQ 100 index options - NDX (same would
apply for QQQQ options). With these trades, our professional
based his decision on strong volume signals and our published
Market
Commentary.
NOTE: This chart of the week is meant mainly for educational
purposes. We don't recommend that our customers follow these exact trades.
We suggest that you develop your own trading style and try doing some paper trading
before using our volume analytics.
|
Security |
Return |
| NDX Call 1 (April) |
+10.8% |
| NDX Call 2 (April) |
+11.2% |
|
Total Profit:
|
+$4,400 |

Even though all the above trades were not entirely without risk,
we came out on top with a profit of
$4,400
How can this chart be used by me?
Our main reason for publishing these charts is to allow our members to learn
by another trader's example how they can make trades based on our volume signals and Market Commentary.
Members can gain a better understanding of how to enter and exit the market,
based on when a signal is generated. To learn from these charts, you don't need to
trade the specific security mentioned in this publication, but whatever security
you feel comfortable with. The principles for trading QQQQ shares will not change
when trading something like S&P 500 futures.
I trade the S&P 500 / SPDRs. How does this apply to me?
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes have generally the same behavior. If you
overlaid a chart of each of them during a short period such as this one, their
general dynamic would be the same. Because of this, you can trade S&P 500 index
shares, and options.
Why did you trade against the current trend?
Our trader decided to take advantage of short-term movements in the market.
This by no means invalidates the fact that the prevailing trend was down. When
the market is in a downtrend, there are always points where excellent buy
signals are generated; therefore, our trader decided to take advantage of these
signals. Also, MarketVolume's Market Stage mentioned that the market could be
entering a support corridor, which means that the market will be
increasingly volatile, excellent for short-term trading. Generally we don't
recommend trading against the current trend unless you are a very skilled
trader.
Should I try to paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try doing
some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable with
interpreting our signals.
Can I trade Rydex or ProFund index funds using your Market
Commentary and signals?
Yes, our system is meant for index traders, and there are many Mutual Fund
options to choose from when trading indexes. So yes, our
indicators are good for trading Mutual Funds, especially dynamic Rydex funds.
What is a 'VMA spike to the upside'?
Simply put, that means that most of the VMA spike was connected with the
index while it was moving up.
We would like to make clear to our members the motivations
that led to the above trades. We have created what we call a 'Table of
Motivation', in which we try to make clear the purpose behind each
of the above trades.
|
Trade |
Motivation |
MV's
Commentary on Members Home Page during the trade |
| Buy Call 1 |
According to
MarketVolume's Market Commentary, the market could easily move up if there
were any significant supportive VMA spikes to the downside. There was a
moderately large VMA spike to the downside today, which lead to the decision
to purchase NDX calls for short-term gain. Also, since MarketVolume's Market
Status in the Market Commentary has changed its outlook, stating that the
market could be entering a support corridor, which means that the market
will be increasingly volatile; excellent for short-term trading. |
Our
outlook for the mid and long-term is that the market will continue in its
current downtrend, but short-term corrections up may be caused by
significant VMA spikes to the downside. |
| Sell Call 1 |
Based on the fact
that the market was moving up quickly, and that there was a moderately large
resistive VMA spike to the upside, decided to play safe and sell open NDX
calls. MarketVolume's Market Commentary also mentioned that a VMA spike like
this could move the market lower. |
In
the short-term, due to the supportive volume we saw today, the market may
move a bit higher, but it will then continue to move lower as a result of
more resistive volume to the upside. |
| Buy Call 2 |
After having had
moved up quite a bit, the market moved lower, and with that there was a
substantial supportive VMA spike to the downside. This supportive VMA spike
was a definite short-term buy signal despite the fact that the market was in
a downtrend. MarketVolume's Market Commentary also mentioned the possibility
that the market could move higher after such a volume spike. |
Overall, we still believe that the market has not shown sufficient signs of
changing its current downtrend; therefore, we believe that in the mid-term
the market will continue to move down. |
| Sell Call 2 |
After having opened
substantially higher, there were increasing amounts of resistive volume to
the upside; this volume signals that the market could move lower in the
short-term. Since there was very little supportive volume in the morning,
decided to close all open positions. |
Recently, the market's behavior has been changing, and the evidence to date
seems to suggest we may be in a support corridor, but this is, as of
yet, unconfirmed. The market's trend will become clearer as more volume
accumulates. If we see more resistive volume in the short-term, this may
also trigger a short-term correction down to retest recent lows. |
The same principles mentioned above works for trading S&P
500, S&P 100, Dow Jones, and other indexes.
Here is a detailed list of our investor's trades, which netted
the above returns:
|
Date |
Put/
Call |
Ctrcts |
Contract
Price |
Index
Value |
Strike |
VMA |
Amount |
Profit |
| 02/26/03 |
B C1 |
10 |
$17.65 |
984.66 |
1,100 |
1,318,000 |
$17,650 |
|
|
02/27/03 |
S C1 |
10 |
$19.59 |
995.25 |
1,100 |
1,292,700 |
$19,570 |
$1,920 |
| 02/28/03 |
B C2 |
10 |
$22.14 |
1,005.04 |
1,100 |
1,553,900 |
$22,140 |
|
|
03/03/03 |
S C2 |
10 |
$24.62 |
1,019.21 |
1,100 |
1,166,100 |
$24,620 |
$2,480 |
|
Total: |
+$4,400 |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 21, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 14,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 7,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 30,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 23,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 9, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 31,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 24,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 17,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 10,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
October 3, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 25,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 16, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 11,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 5,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 27, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 15,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 4,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 28, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 25, 2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 12, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 2, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
June 27, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 28,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 11,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
March 4, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 12,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 4,
2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 29,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
January 24, 2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 22,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
December 19,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
December 10, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 27, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 20,
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
November 13, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
November 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
October 25,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 25, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
September 18, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
September 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 21
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
August 14
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 7,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 31, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 24, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 17, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
July 10, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
June 26, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 14, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
June 12, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 5, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 31, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 29, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 17, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 15, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 8, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 3, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
May 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
April 28, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 3, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 25, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 8, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
January 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
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