Technical Analysis. Nasdaq 100,


Technical Analysis - NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500

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Best Mid-Term Trade
July 2nd, 2003

This week's Best Trade of the week is a continuation on last week's best trade where we left two call positions open. It turned out to be an excellent call, as the market moved up dramatically since last Friday and our mid-term index options trader, trading NASDAQ 100 options, came out with a substantial profit in the end.

NOTE: This chart of the week is meant mainly for educational purposes. We don't recommend that our customers follow these exact trades. We suggest that you develop your own trading style and try doing some paper trading before using our volume analytics.

Security Return
Put #1 (NDX July) +140%
Call #2 (NDX July) +125%
Call #3 (NDX July) +71%

Total Profit:

+$118,600

Even though all the above trades were not entirely without risk, we came out on top with a profit of $118,600

Why did you close all your call positions when the Market Commentary says the mid-term trend is up?
The main reason for closing all outstanding call positions was because of the large amount of resistive volume we saw today, which could move the market lower in the short-term. Since these are July call options they could depreciate quickly with s short-term move down. Also, if the market does begin to move down, having July calls doesn't allow for much room for error, so closing with a profit today turned out to be the best option. Keep in mind that the upcoming weekend is a long weekend, which means that there is one extra day in which the price of these calls can depreciate. Generally we recommend trading options that don't expire for at least two or three months, but in this case we had to buy July options since the liquidity of August and September options was rather low for the strike price we had in mind.

How can this chart be used by me?
Our main reason for publishing these charts is to allow our members to learn by another trader's example how they can make trades based on our volume signals and Market Commentary. Members can gain a better understanding of how to enter and exit the market, based on when a signal is generated. To learn from these charts, you don't need to trade the specific security mentioned in this publication, but whatever security you feel comfortable with. The principles for trading QQQQ shares will not change when trading something like S&P 500 futures.

I trade the S&P 500 / SPDRs. How does this apply to me?
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes have generally the same behavior. If you overlaid a chart of each of them during a short period such as this one, their general dynamic would be the same. Because of this, you can trade S&P 500 index shares, and options.

Should I try to paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try doing some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable with interpreting our signals. Only very experienced traders should trade options because of the high risk involved. You can always trade index shares instead of options and still make a decent profit, but returns will not be as large.

Can I trade Rydex or ProFund index funds using your Market Commentary and signals?
Yes, our system is meant for index traders, and there are many Mutual Fund options to choose from when trading indexes. So yes, our indicators are good for trading Mutual Funds, especially dynamic Rydex funds.

We would like to make clear to our members the motivations that led to the above trades. We have created what we call a 'Table of Motivation', in which we try to make clear the purpose behind each of the above trades.

Trade Motivation MV's Commentary on Members Home Page during the trade
Buy NDX Put #1 MarketVolume's Market Commentary mentioned that because of the pending triple-witching day, the market could move lower. That fact combined with the fact that there was a very large resistive VMA spike to the upside led to the decision of buying NASDAQ 100 puts. This trade was place with a high degree of confidence because of the resistive volume and MarketVolume's Market Commentary. We believe that this resistive volume spike, which is not as large as the supportive VMA spike seen on June 6th, could cause the market to move lower through Friday, a triple-witching day.
Sell NDX Put #1 There was a very large supportive VMA spike to the downside, which led to the decision that the market will most probably begin to move higher. Volume data combined with MarketVolume's statement that the market could indeed move higher led to the decision to close the current NASDAQ 100 put position. Despite the large amount of supportive volume, opening a call position at this point seemed too risky; therefore, only the current put position was closed. Overall, today's volume split between resistive volume in the morning and supportive volume in the afternoon. Therefore, the market could move higher in the mid-term as the supportive volume over the past week seems to outweigh the resistive volume.
Buy NDX Call #2 The NASDAQ 100 index moved quite a bit higher in the morning, but as the index began to decline in the afternoon there was a significantly large supportive VMA spike to the downside. MarketVolume's Market Commentary stated that the market could move lower, but it was implied that supportive volume could move the market higher in the mid-term. These facts led to the decision to open a NASDAQ 100 call position. Overall, we believe that the market could move lower in the short-term in response to the resistive volume seen this afternoon. Also, keep in mind that if the market moves higher it is a sign that the resistive volume seen today was simply the market covering the supportive volume yesterday.
Buy NDX Call #3 After opening the previous call position, the market did move quite a bit higher, but then the market gave back some of those gains in the afternoon today. As the NASDAQ 100 index moved lower there was, once again, a significant supportive VMA spike to the downside. MarketVolume's Market Commentary for the previous day also mentioned that it is likely for the market to continue to move higher in the mid-term. Since the NASDAQ 100 index moved lower and generated a large amount of supportive volume, it was an excellent point to increase the current NASDAQ 100 call position by buying more contracts. We believe that the market could continue to move higher and retest its highs in the mid-term, but the resistive VMA spikes seen at the end of the day today may cause the market to move lower in the short-term.
Sell NDX Call #2 MarketVolume's Market Commentary mentioned that the market could move lower in response to the resistive volume of the previous day, but this actually didn't happen as the market did move higher. As the market moved higher there was another large resistive VMA spike to the upside which became the main reason for closing the call positions today. The other important reason for closing the open call positions today was because tomorrow is a short day and after that it is a long weekend. Since the options contracts were for July, current month, they will depreciate in value by a significant amount over the weekend; therefore, it was an excellent point to close these positions. These two resistive VMA spikes to the upside were exactly one hour apart and they are most likely due to the covering of short positions. Overall, the resistive volume seen today is not enough to cover the supportive volume generated over the past week, but it may play a part in moving the market lower in the short-term. Our mid-term outlook is still for the market to continue to move higher and perhaps retest its recent highs.
Sell NDX Call #3

The same principles mentioned above works for trading S&P 500, S&P 100, Dow Jones, as well as other indexes.

Here is a detailed list of our investor's trades, which netted the above returns:

Date Put/
Call
Ctrcts Contract
Price
Index
Value
Strike VMA Amount Profit
06/18/03 B P1 30 $11.25 1,253.24 1,200 1,672,800 $33,750  
06/23/03 S P1 30 $27.05 1,196.00 1,200 1,211,500 $81,150 $47,400
06/25/03 B C2 40 $8.15 1,189.00 1,250 1,444,500 $32,600  
06/27/03 B C3 40 $10.78 1,206.37 1,250 1,339,600 $43,120  
07/02/03 S C2 40 $18.35 1,239.66 1,250 1,397,600 $73,400 $40,800
07/02/03 S C3 40 $18.35 1,239.66 1,250 1,397,600 $73,400 $30,400

Total:

+$118,600

To see any of our past best trades, simply select from the list below.

Date Indicator
December 21, 2003 QQQQ Options
December 14, 2003 QQQQ Options
December 7, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 30, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 23, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 9, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 31, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 24, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 17, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 10, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
October 3, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 25, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 16, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 11, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
September 5, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 27, 2003 QQQQ Options
August 15, 2003 QQQQ Options
August 4, 2003 QQQQ Options
July 28, 2003 NASDAQ 100
July 25, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
July 12, 2003 NASDAQ 100
July 2, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
June 27, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
March 28, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
March 11, 2003 NASDAQ 100
March 4, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
February 12, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
February 4, 2003 S&P 500
January 29, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
January 24, 2003 S&P 500
January 22, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

To see any of our past best trades, simply select from the list below.

Date Indicator
December 30, 2002 NASDAQ 100
December 19, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
December 10, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 27, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 20, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
November 13, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 6, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
November 1, 2002 NASDAQ 100
October 25, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
September 25, 2002 NASDAQ 100
September 18, 2002 S&P 500
September 6, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 21 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
August 14 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 7, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
July 31, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
July 24, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
July 17, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
July 10, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
June 26, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
June 14, 2002 S&P 500
June 12, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
June 5, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
May 31, 2002 S&P 500
May 29, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 22, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 17, 2002 S&P 500
May 15, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 8, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
May 3, 2002 NASDAQ 100
May 1, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
April 28, 2002 NASDAQ 100
April 22, 2002 NASDAQ 100
April 3, 2002 S&P 500
February 25, 2002 S&P 500
February 8, 2002 NASDAQ 100
January 30, 2002 NASDAQ 100
QQQQ Trading System
QQQQ, SPY and DIA trading signals for conservative mid- and long-7 term traders ...

QQQQ Signals
Past 6 Months

10%

20%

Compound Compound
Margin

As of 3/11/2010


NASDAQ Polling Service
Nasdaq in a month?

Up

The same as now

Down

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