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Best Mid-Term Trade
July 2nd, 2003
This week's Best Trade of the week is a continuation
on last week's best trade where we left two call positions open. It turned out
to be an excellent call, as the market moved up dramatically since last Friday
and our mid-term index options trader, trading NASDAQ 100 options, came out with
a substantial profit in the end.
NOTE: This chart of the week is meant mainly for
educational purposes. We don't recommend that our customers follow these
exact trades. We suggest that you develop your own trading style and try doing
some paper trading before using our volume analytics.
|
Security |
Return |
| Put #1 (NDX July) |
+140% |
| Call #2 (NDX July) |
+125% |
| Call #3 (NDX July) |
+71% |
|
Total Profit: |
+$118,600 |

Even though all the above trades were not entirely without
risk, we came out on top with a profit of
$118,600
Why did you close all your call positions when the Market
Commentary says the mid-term trend is up?
The main reason for closing all outstanding call positions was because of the
large amount of resistive volume we saw today, which could move the market lower
in the short-term. Since these are July call options they could depreciate
quickly with s short-term move down. Also, if the market does begin to move
down, having July calls doesn't allow for much room for error, so closing with a
profit today turned out to be the best option. Keep in mind that the upcoming
weekend is a long weekend, which means that there is one extra day in which the
price of these calls can depreciate. Generally we recommend trading options that
don't expire for at least two or three months, but in this case we had to buy
July options since the liquidity of August and September options was rather low
for the strike price we had in mind.
How can this chart be used by me?
Our main reason for publishing these charts is to allow our members to learn
by another trader's example how they can make trades based on our volume signals
and Market Commentary. Members can gain a better understanding of how to enter
and exit the market, based on when a signal is generated. To learn from these
charts, you don't need to trade the specific security mentioned in this
publication, but whatever security you feel comfortable with. The principles for
trading QQQQ shares will not change when trading something like S&P 500 futures.
I trade the S&P 500 / SPDRs. How does this apply to me?
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes have generally the same behavior. If you
overlaid a chart of each of them during a short period such as this one, their
general dynamic would be the same. Because of this, you can trade S&P 500 index
shares, and options.
Should I try to paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try doing
some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable with
interpreting our signals. Only very experienced traders should trade options
because of the high risk involved. You can always trade index shares instead of
options and still make a decent profit, but returns will not be as large.
Can I trade Rydex or ProFund index funds using your Market
Commentary and signals?
Yes, our system is meant for index traders, and there are many Mutual Fund
options to choose from when trading indexes. So yes, our indicators are good for
trading Mutual Funds, especially dynamic Rydex funds.
We would like to make
clear to our members the motivations that led to the above trades. We have
created what we call a 'Table of Motivation', in which we try to make clear the
purpose behind each of the above trades.
|
Trade |
Motivation |
MV's Commentary on Members Home Page during
the trade |
| Buy NDX Put #1 |
MarketVolume's
Market Commentary mentioned that because of the pending triple-witching day,
the market could move lower. That fact combined with the fact that there was
a very large resistive VMA spike to the upside led to the decision of buying
NASDAQ 100 puts. This trade was place with a high degree of confidence
because of the resistive volume and MarketVolume's Market Commentary. |
We
believe that this resistive volume spike, which is not as large as the
supportive VMA spike seen on June 6th, could cause the market to move lower
through Friday, a triple-witching day. |
| Sell NDX Put #1 |
There was a very
large supportive VMA spike to the downside, which led to the decision that
the market will most probably begin to move higher. Volume data combined
with MarketVolume's statement that the market could indeed move higher led
to the decision to close the current NASDAQ 100 put position. Despite the
large amount of supportive volume, opening a call position at this point
seemed too risky; therefore, only the current put position was closed. |
Overall, today's volume split between resistive volume in the morning and
supportive volume in the afternoon. Therefore, the market could move higher
in the mid-term as the supportive volume over the past week seems to
outweigh the resistive volume. |
| Buy NDX Call #2 |
The NASDAQ 100
index moved quite a bit higher in the morning, but as the index began to
decline in the afternoon there was a significantly large supportive VMA
spike to the downside. MarketVolume's Market Commentary stated that the
market could move lower, but it was implied that supportive volume could
move the market higher in the mid-term. These facts led to the decision to
open a NASDAQ 100 call position. |
Overall, we believe that the market could move lower in the short-term in
response to the resistive volume seen this afternoon. Also, keep in mind
that if the market moves higher it is a sign that the resistive volume seen
today was simply the market covering the supportive volume yesterday. |
| Buy NDX Call #3 |
After opening the
previous call position, the market did move quite a bit higher, but then the
market gave back some of those gains in the afternoon today. As the NASDAQ
100 index moved lower there was, once again, a significant supportive VMA
spike to the downside. MarketVolume's Market Commentary for the previous day
also mentioned that it is likely for the market to continue to move higher
in the mid-term. Since the NASDAQ 100 index moved lower and generated a
large amount of supportive volume, it was an excellent point to increase the
current NASDAQ 100 call position by buying more contracts. |
We
believe that the market could continue to move higher and retest its highs
in the mid-term, but the resistive VMA spikes seen at the end of the day
today may cause the market to move lower in the short-term. |
| Sell NDX Call
#2 |
MarketVolume's Market Commentary mentioned that the market could move lower
in response to the resistive volume of the previous day, but this actually
didn't happen as the market did move higher. As the market moved higher
there was another large resistive VMA spike to the upside which became the
main reason for closing the call positions today. The other important reason
for closing the open call positions today was because tomorrow is a short
day and after that it is a long weekend. Since the options contracts were
for July, current month, they will depreciate in value by a significant
amount over the weekend; therefore, it was an excellent point to close these
positions. |
These two resistive VMA spikes to the upside
were exactly one hour apart and they are most likely due to the covering of
short positions. Overall, the resistive volume seen today is not enough to
cover the supportive volume generated over the past week, but it may play a
part in moving the market lower in the short-term. Our mid-term outlook is
still for the market to continue to move higher and perhaps retest its
recent highs. |
| Sell NDX Call
#3 |
The same principles mentioned above works for trading S&P
500, S&P 100, Dow Jones, as well as other indexes.
Here
is a detailed list of our investor's trades, which netted the above returns:
|
Date |
Put/
Call |
Ctrcts |
Contract
Price |
Index
Value |
Strike |
VMA |
Amount |
Profit |
| 06/18/03 |
B P1 |
30 |
$11.25 |
1,253.24 |
1,200 |
1,672,800 |
$33,750 |
|
| 06/23/03 |
S P1 |
30 |
$27.05 |
1,196.00 |
1,200 |
1,211,500 |
$81,150 |
$47,400 |
| 06/25/03 |
B C2 |
40 |
$8.15 |
1,189.00 |
1,250 |
1,444,500 |
$32,600 |
|
| 06/27/03 |
B C3 |
40 |
$10.78 |
1,206.37 |
1,250 |
1,339,600 |
$43,120 |
|
| 07/02/03 |
S C2 |
40 |
$18.35 |
1,239.66 |
1,250 |
1,397,600 |
$73,400 |
$40,800 |
| 07/02/03 |
S C3 |
40 |
$18.35 |
1,239.66 |
1,250 |
1,397,600 |
$73,400 |
$30,400 |
|
Total: |
+$118,600 |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 21, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 14,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 7,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 30,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 23,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 9, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 31,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 24,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 17,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 10,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
October 3, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 25,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 16, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 11,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 5,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 27, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 15,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 4,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 28, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 25, 2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 12, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 2, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
June 27, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 28,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 11,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
March 4, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 12,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 4,
2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 29,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
January 24, 2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 22,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
December 19,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
December 10, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 27, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 20,
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
November 13, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
November 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
October 25,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 25, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
September 18, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
September 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 21
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
August 14
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 7,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 31, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 24, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 17, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
July 10, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
June 26, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 14, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
June 12, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 5, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 31, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 29, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 17, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 15, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 8, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 3, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
May 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
April 28, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 3, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 25, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 8, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
January 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
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