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Best Short-Term Trade
August 4th, 2003
Our mid-term index options trader traded QQQQ
options for this best trade of the week, but one could have traded
NASDAQ 100 index shares or options using the same method. These
trades were based strong volume signals and our
Market
Commentary.
NOTE: This chart of the week is meant mainly for educational
purposes. We don't recommend that our customers follow these exact trades.
We suggest that you develop your own trading style and try doing some paper trading
before using our volume analytics.
|
Security |
Return |
| Put #1 (QQQQ October) |
+12.2% |
| Put #2 (QQQQ October) |
+26.3% |
| Put #3 (QQQQ October) |
Holding |
|
Total Profit:
|
+$1,770 |

Even though all the above trades were not entirely without risk,
we came out on top with a profit of
$1,770
How can this chart be used by me?
Our main reason for publishing these charts is to allow our members to learn
by another trader's example how they can make trades based on our volume signals
and Market Commentary. Members can gain a better understanding of how to enter
and exit the market, based on when a signal is generated. To learn from these
charts, you don't need to trade the specific security mentioned in this
publication, but whatever security you feel comfortable with. The principles for
trading QQQQ options will not change when trading something like NASDAQ 100 index
options, futures or QQQQ
shares.
Should I Trade Options?
Only very experienced traders should trade
options because of the high risk involved. You can always trade index shares
instead of options and still make a decent profit, but returns will not be as large.
Should I try to paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try doing
some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable with
interpreting our signals.
I trade S&P 500 / SPDRs. How does this apply to me?
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes have generally the same behavior. If you
overlaid a chart of each of them during a short period such as this one, their
general dynamic would be the same. Because of this, you can trade S&P 500 index
shares, and options.
Why did you trade against the current mid-term trend?
Our trader decided to take advantage of short-term movements in the market.
This by no means invalidates the fact that the prevailing trend was up. When
the market is in an uptrend, there are always points where excellent sell
signals are generated; therefore, our trader decided to take advantage of these
signals. Also, MarketVolume's Market Stage mentions that the market is in a
resistance corridor, which means that the market will be
volatile, excellent for short-term trading. Generally we don't
recommend trading against the current trend unless you are a very skilled
trader.
Why did you leave one put option
open?
We have confidence that the market will
move lower in the short-term due to the resistive volume seen at the end
of Monday.
What is a 'VMA spike to the upside'?
Simply put, that means that most of the volume spike was connected with the
index while it was moving up.
We would like to the motivations
that led to the above trades as clear as possible; therefore, we have created what we call a 'Table of
Motivation', in which we try to make the purpose behind each
of the above trades as clear as possible.
|
Trade |
Motivation |
MV's
Commentary on Members Home Page during the trade |
| Buy QQQQ Put #1 |
MarketVolume's
Market Commentary was right on the money when it said that the market would
move down and collect more supportive volume before moving up. The reasoning
behind this trade was because, as the market moved up, there was a large
resistive VMA spike to the upside, which signaled that there was a good
chance for the market to move lower in the short-term. |
Overall, there was more supportive volume than resistive volume today, which
makes us believe that the market could move higher in the short-term. Keep
in mind that the resistive volume from Friday may still cause the market to
move lower in the short-term, but if it does, we believe that supportive
volume will move the market higher shortly thereafter. Our mid-term outlook
still remains for the market to continue moving higher. |
| Buy QQQQ Put #2 |
MarketVolume's
Market Commentary stated that there would be a good chance for the market to
move higher in the short-term, which had us almost ready to sell our put
positions with a loss, but as the market moved higher there was a very large
resistive VMA spike to the upside. This large resistive VMA spike signaled
that there was a good chance for the market to move lower again. Because of
this we purchases more QQQQ puts in order to average down our overall price
and hopefully sell with a good profit. |
Overall, there was slightly more supportive volume than resistive volume
today, which when combined with yesterday's supportive VMA spike at the end
of the day should help move the market higher in the short-term. To date we
have not seen enough resistive volume to change our mid-term outlook for the
market; our analysis still shows that the market will move higher in the
mid-term. |
| Sell QQQQ Put #1 |
The
market did move down on Friday, but there was very little supportive volume
and some resistive volume. Because of this we didn't sell on Friday.
Friday's MarketVolume Market Commentary also mentioned that the market will
move lower in the short-term in order to pick up more supportive volume. We
decided to capitalize on this and ended up selling all open QQQQ put options
as the market declined Monday morning. |
A moderate resistive VMA spike to the upside
occurred at 13:15 as the market moved higher and caused the market to pull
back to its lows of the day. Overall, today's volume was fairly light and we
could see the market move slightly lower in the short-term in order for it
to pick up more supportive volume. Otherwise, our mid-term outlook still
remains positive. |
| Sell QQQQ Put #2 |
| Buy QQQQ Put #3 |
As MarketVolume
predicted, there was supportive volume as the market declined in the
morning, but as the market moved higher there were several large resistive
VMA spikes to the upside. We didn't buy more puts on the first spike as it
was about the same size as the VMA spike that caused the market to move
higher, but the second VMA spike to the upside was quite large and was an
excellent signal to but more short-term QQQQ put options. |
The same principles mentioned above works for trading
NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones, as well as other indexes.
Here
is a detailed list of our investor's trades, which netted the above returns:
|
Date |
Put/
Call |
Ctrcts |
Contract
Price |
Index
Value |
QQQQ
Value |
Strike |
VMA |
Amount |
Profit |
| 07/29/03 |
B P1 |
40 |
$1.07 |
1,275.65 |
$31.71 |
28 |
1,438,100 |
$4,280 |
|
|
07/31/03 |
B P2 |
50 |
$0.95 |
1,293.56 |
$32.17 |
28 |
1,482,700 |
$4,750 |
|
| 08/04/03 |
S P1 |
40 |
$1.20 |
1,244.52 |
$30.94 |
28 |
1,007,200 |
$4,800 |
$520 |
|
08/04/03 |
S P2 |
50 |
$1.20 |
1,244.52 |
$30.94 |
28 |
1,007,200 |
$6,000 |
$1,250 |
| 08/04/03 |
B P3 |
65 |
$2.05 |
1,272.95 |
$31.66 |
32 |
1,362,400 |
$13,325 |
|
|
Total: |
+$1,770 |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 21, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 14,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 7,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 30,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 23,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 9, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 31,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 24,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 17,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 10,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
October 3, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 25,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 16, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 11,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 5,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 27, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 15,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 4,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 28, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 25, 2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 12, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 2, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
June 27, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 28,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 11,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
March 4, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 12,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 4,
2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 29,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
January 24, 2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 22,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
December 19,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
December 10, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 27, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 20,
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
November 13, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
November 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
October 25,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 25, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
September 18, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
September 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 21
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
August 14
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 7,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 31, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 24, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 17, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
July 10, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
June 26, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 14, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
June 12, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 5, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 31, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 29, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 17, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 15, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 8, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 3, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
May 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
April 28, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 3, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 25, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 8, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
January 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
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