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Market Indicators

Index Last %
NYSE 8369.91 -2.46%
NASDAQ 2280.11 -1.97%
AMEX 2124.38 -1.55%
DJI 11349.28 -2.43%
DJT 4945.3 -3.76%
DJU 482.98 -0.57%
NASDAQ 100 1816.98 -1.55%
S&P 100 579.09 -2.35%
S&P 400 792.1 -3.03%
S&P 500 1252.54 -2.31%
S&P 600 366.54 -2.64%

As of July 24,2008 20:18

@ MarketVolume.com

Best Short-Term Trade
September 5th, 2003

Our short-term index options trader traded S&P 500 index options for this best trade of the week, but one could have traded NASDAQ 100 index shares or options using the same method. These trades were based strong volume signals and our Market Commentary.

NOTE: This chart of the week is meant mainly for educational purposes. We don't recommend that our customers follow these exact trades. We suggest that you develop your own trading style and try doing some paper trading before using our volume analytics.

Security Return
Put #1 (SPX October) +9%
Put #2 (SPX October) Holding

Total Profit:

+$1,100

Even though all the above trades were not entirely without risk, we came out on top with a profit of $1,300

Why did you leave one put option open despite the large supportive volume seen at the end of the week?
We believe that the market has not yet finished reacting to the large amount of resistive volume seen during the course of the week. Historically, when the market has a short-term correction, it continues to move lower despite an initial supportive VMA spike. It usually takes two or sometimes three supportive VMA spikes before a short-term correction is at an end.

How can this chart be used by me?
Our main reason for publishing these charts is to allow our members to learn by another trader's example how they can make trades based on our volume signals and Market Commentary. Members can gain a better understanding of how to enter and exit the market, based on when a signal is generated. To learn from these charts, you don't need to trade the specific security mentioned in this publication, but whatever security you feel comfortable with. The principles for trading SPX options will not change when trading something like S&P 500 index futures, futures or SPDRs shares.

Should I Trade Options?
Only very experienced traders should trade options because of the high risk involved. You can always trade index shares instead of options and still make a decent profit, but returns will not be as large.

Should I try to paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try doing some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable with interpreting our signals.

Should I try to paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try doing some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable with interpreting our signals. Only very experienced traders should trade options because of the high risk involved. You can always trade index shares instead of options and still make a decent profit, but returns will not be as large.

Can I trade Rydex or ProFund index funds using your Market Commentary and signals?
Yes, our system is meant for index traders, and there are many Mutual Fund options to choose from when trading indexes. So yes, our indicators are good for trading Mutual Funds, especially dynamic Rydex funds.

We would like to  the motivations that led to the above trades as clear as possible; therefore, we have created what we call a 'Table of Motivation', in which we try to make the purpose behind each of the above trades as clear as possible.

Trade Motivation MV's Commentary on Members Home Page during the trade
Buy Put #1 The main reason for entering in to a short positions was because the Market Commentary stated that there is a good chance for the market to pull back from its recent highs and because there has been very high levels of resistive volume, which has been increasing steadily over the past several days. Because of all this, we decided to enter into a short position on the S&P 500 index by purchasing S&P 500 index options (root symbol SPX). As the market moved higher, it encountered a large resistive VMA spike to the upside at 12:20, which caused the market to abate its move higher, but it didn't cause much of a drawback due to the supportive volume seen shortly thereafter. As the market moved higher in the later afternoon, it encountered another large resistive VMA spike to the upside, to which the market has yet to react. Overall, we believe that the resistive volume seen today will cause the market to have a short-term correction, but after a short-term correction we still believe there is room for the market to move higher.
Buy Put #2 Although the market did not pull back today (it remained in a tight trading range), we did see more resistive volume to the upside during the afternoon. Because of this and the recent Market Commentary stating that a correction is inevitable, we purchased even more put options for a slightly lower price than the original trade. These resistive VMA spikes helped to move the market slightly lower by close. The NASDAQ 100 index had a more immediate response to the resistive volume seen this afternoon, but the S&P 500 remained fairly flat near the end of this day. The reasoning behind this is because the resistive volume on the NASDAQ 100 was larger and more pronounced than on the S&P 500, causing the NASDAQ 100 to move lower in the afternoon and the S&P 500 index to remain fairly stable. Overall, we believe that the market will move lower in the short-term, as it has yet to respond to the resistive volume we've seen over the past few days. In the mid-term, we believe that there is still room for the market to move higher after a short-term correction.
Sell Put #1 Today the market began to move lower and as the Market Commentary predicted, it was accompanied by a large supportive VMA spike to the downside. Because of this supportive volume, we felt it necessary to close some of our SPX put positions, but we also left some open. The reason we left some of the put options open is that we don't believe that this supportive VMA spike to the upside entirely cancels out the resistive volume seen over the past several days. As a result, we kept 10 contracts open for next week. These resistive VMA spikes to the upside didn't cause any immediate reaction in the market other than to keep it from moving much higher. The behavior that we've been seeing over the past couple days is indicative of the market being in the upper reaches of a resistance corridor. Overall, we believe that due to the resistive volume seen over the past several days, as the market was approaching new highs, that the market is due for a short-term correction. After a short-term correction, we expect to see more supportive volume that should lead the market to move higher in the mid-term.

The same principles mentioned above works for trading NASDAQ 100, S&P 100, Dow Jones, as well as other indexes.

Here is a detailed list of our investor's trades, which netted the above returns:

Date Put/
Call
Ctrcts Contract
Price
Index
Value
Strike VMA Amount Profit
09/03/03 B P1 10 $12.40 1,026.76 995 3,435,400 $12,400
09/04/03 B P2 10 $12.20 1,026.81 995 3,107,200 $12,200  
09/05/03 S P1 10 $13.50 1,021.40 995 3,901,100 $13,500 $1,100

Total:

+$1,100

To see any of our past best trades, simply select from the list below.

Date Indicator
December 21, 2003 QQQQ Options
December 14, 2003 QQQQ Options
December 7, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 30, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 23, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 9, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 31, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 24, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 17, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 10, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
October 3, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 25, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 16, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 11, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
September 5, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 27, 2003 QQQQ Options
August 15, 2003 QQQQ Options
August 4, 2003 QQQQ Options
July 28, 2003 NASDAQ 100
July 25, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
July 12, 2003 NASDAQ 100
July 2, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
June 27, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
March 28, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
March 11, 2003 NASDAQ 100
March 4, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
February 12, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
February 4, 2003 S&P 500
January 29, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
January 24, 2003 S&P 500
January 22, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

To see any of our past best trades, simply select from the list below.

Date Indicator
December 30, 2002 NASDAQ 100
December 19, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
December 10, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 27, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 20, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
November 13, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 6, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
November 1, 2002 NASDAQ 100
October 25, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
September 25, 2002 NASDAQ 100
September 18, 2002 S&P 500
September 6, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 21 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
August 14 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 7, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
July 31, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
July 24, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
July 17, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
July 10, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
June 26, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
June 14, 2002 S&P 500
June 12, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
June 5, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
May 31, 2002 S&P 500
May 29, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 22, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 17, 2002 S&P 500
May 15, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 8, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
May 3, 2002 NASDAQ 100
May 1, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
April 28, 2002 NASDAQ 100
April 22, 2002 NASDAQ 100
April 3, 2002 S&P 500
February 25, 2002 S&P 500
February 8, 2002 NASDAQ 100
January 30, 2002 NASDAQ 100
QQQQ Trading System
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7/24/2008 - SV1