|
|
 |
Best Short-Term Trade
September 5th, 2003
Our short-term index options trader traded S&P
500 index options for this best trade of the week, but one could have traded
NASDAQ 100 index shares or options using the same method. These
trades were based strong volume signals and our
Market
Commentary.
NOTE: This chart of the week is meant mainly for educational
purposes. We don't recommend that our customers follow these exact trades.
We suggest that you develop your own trading style and try doing some paper trading
before using our volume analytics.
|
Security |
Return |
| Put #1 (SPX October) |
+9% |
| Put #2 (SPX October) |
Holding |
|
Total Profit:
|
+$1,100 |

Even though all the above trades were not entirely without risk,
we came out on top with a profit of
$1,300
Why did you leave one put option
open despite the large supportive volume seen at the end of the week?
We believe that the market has not yet finished reacting to the large
amount of resistive volume seen during the course of the week. Historically,
when the market has a short-term correction, it continues to move lower despite
an initial supportive VMA spike. It usually takes two or sometimes three
supportive VMA spikes before a short-term correction is at an end.
How can this chart be used by me?
Our main reason for publishing these charts is to allow our members to learn
by another trader's example how they can make trades based on our volume signals
and Market Commentary. Members can gain a better understanding of how to enter
and exit the market, based on when a signal is generated. To learn from these
charts, you don't need to trade the specific security mentioned in this
publication, but whatever security you feel comfortable with. The principles for
trading SPX options will not change when trading something like S&P 500 index
futures, futures or SPDRs
shares.
Should I Trade Options?
Only very experienced traders should trade
options because of the high risk involved. You can always trade index shares
instead of options and still make a decent profit, but returns will not be as large.
Should I try to paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try doing
some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable with
interpreting our signals.
Should I try to paper trade before trading options?
Yes! We suggest that anyone who is new to our signals and analysis try doing
some paper trading to start, at least until they are comfortable with
interpreting our signals. Only very experienced traders should trade options
because of the high risk involved. You can always trade index shares instead of
options and still make a decent profit, but returns will not be as large.
Can I trade Rydex or ProFund index funds using your Market
Commentary and signals?
Yes, our system is meant for index traders, and there are many Mutual Fund
options to choose from when trading indexes. So yes, our indicators are good for
trading Mutual Funds, especially dynamic Rydex funds.
We would like to the motivations
that led to the above trades as clear as possible; therefore, we have created what we call a 'Table of
Motivation', in which we try to make the purpose behind each
of the above trades as clear as possible.
|
Trade |
Motivation |
MV's
Commentary on Members Home Page during the trade |
| Buy Put #1 |
The main reason for
entering in to a short positions was because the Market Commentary stated
that there is a good chance for the market to pull back from its recent
highs and because there has been very high levels of resistive volume, which
has been increasing steadily over the past several days. Because of all
this, we decided to enter into a short position on the S&P 500 index by
purchasing S&P 500 index options (root symbol SPX). |
As the market moved higher, it encountered a
large resistive VMA spike to the upside at 12:20, which caused the market to
abate its move higher, but it didn't cause much of a drawback due to the
supportive volume seen shortly thereafter. As the market moved higher in the
later afternoon, it encountered another large resistive VMA spike to the
upside, to which the market has yet to react. Overall, we believe that the
resistive volume seen today will cause the market to have a short-term
correction, but after a short-term correction we still believe there is room
for the market to move higher. |
| Buy Put #2 |
Although the market
did not pull back today (it remained in a tight trading range), we did see
more resistive volume to the upside during the afternoon. Because of this
and the recent Market Commentary stating that a correction is inevitable, we
purchased even more put options for a slightly lower price than the original
trade. |
These resistive VMA spikes helped to move the
market slightly lower by close. The NASDAQ 100 index had a more immediate
response to the resistive volume seen this afternoon, but the S&P 500
remained fairly flat near the end of this day. The reasoning behind this is
because the resistive volume on the NASDAQ 100 was larger and more
pronounced than on the S&P 500, causing the NASDAQ 100 to move lower in the
afternoon and the S&P 500 index to remain fairly stable. Overall, we believe
that the market will move lower in the short-term, as it has yet to respond
to the resistive volume we've seen over the past few days. In the mid-term,
we believe that there is still room for the market to move higher after a
short-term correction. |
| Sell Put #1 |
Today the market
began to move lower and as the Market Commentary predicted, it was
accompanied by a large supportive VMA spike to the downside. Because of this
supportive volume, we felt it necessary to close some of our SPX put
positions, but we also left some open. The reason we left some of the put
options open is that we don't believe that this supportive VMA spike to the
upside entirely cancels out the resistive volume seen over the past several
days. As a result, we kept 10 contracts open for next week. |
These resistive VMA spikes to the upside
didn't cause any immediate reaction in the market other than to keep it from
moving much higher. The behavior that we've been seeing over the past couple
days is indicative of the market being in the upper reaches of a resistance
corridor. Overall, we believe that due to the resistive volume seen over the
past several days, as the market was approaching new highs, that the market
is due for a short-term correction. After a short-term correction, we expect
to see more supportive volume that should lead the market to move higher in
the mid-term. |
The same principles mentioned above works for trading
NASDAQ 100, S&P 100, Dow Jones, as well as other indexes.
Here
is a detailed list of our investor's trades, which netted the above returns:
|
Date |
Put/
Call |
Ctrcts |
Contract
Price |
Index
Value |
Strike |
VMA |
Amount |
Profit |
| 09/03/03 |
B P1 |
10 |
$12.40 |
1,026.76 |
995 |
3,435,400 |
$12,400 |
|
|
09/04/03 |
B P2 |
10 |
$12.20 |
1,026.81 |
995 |
3,107,200 |
$12,200 |
|
| 09/05/03 |
S P1 |
10 |
$13.50 |
1,021.40 |
995 |
3,901,100 |
$13,500 |
$1,100 |
|
Total: |
+$1,100 |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 21, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 14,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 7,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 30,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 23,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 9, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 31,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 24,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 17,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 10,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
October 3, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 25,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 16, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 11,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 5,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 27, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 15,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 4,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 28, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 25, 2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 12, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 2, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
June 27, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 28,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 11,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
March 4, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 12,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 4,
2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 29,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
January 24, 2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 22,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
December 19,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
December 10, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 27, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 20,
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
November 13, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
November 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
October 25,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 25, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
September 18, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
September 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 21
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
August 14
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 7,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 31, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 24, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 17, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
July 10, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
June 26, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 14, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
June 12, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 5, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 31, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 29, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 17, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 15, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 8, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 3, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
May 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
April 28, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 3, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 25, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 8, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
January 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
|
 |
|