Technical Analysis. Nasdaq 100,


Technical Analysis - NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500

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Best Short-Term Trade
December 14th, 2003

Our short-term index options trader traded QQQQ options for this best trade of the week, but one could have traded NASDAQ 100 index shares or options using the same method. These trades were based on strong volume indicators and Market Commentary.

This week's Best Trade of the week
 is a continuation on our previous best trade
where we left a QQQQ Call position open.

NOTE: This chart of the week is meant primarily for educational purposes. We don't recommend that our customers follow these exact trades. We suggest that you develop your own trading style and try doing some paper trading before using our volume analytics.

Security Return
Call #1 (QQQQ January) +3.85%
Call #2 (QQQQ January) +50.00%

Total Profit:

+$5,800

Even though all the above trades were not entirely without risk, we came out on top with a profit of $5,800

Why have you closed all your open call position while at the time stating in your market commentary that the index will probably move up?

We have closed all our call positions in order to play it safe. Keep in mind that in the short-term, the markets may encounter increased volatility, for instance the coming Friday is a triple-witching-day. Also, remember that options lose part of their (time) value as they approach expiration. We believe it is sometimes better to take a smaller (but guaranteed profit now), rather than hanging on for higher (potential) profits, especially when trading options.

Notes:

If you trade options, we recommend you invest only a small portion of your assets - an amount that will fit your personal trading needs and risk tolerance. In our opinion, that amount should be about 10% of your total portfolio; it should never exceed 30%.

At the same time, we do not recommend that you commit more than 30% of your options portfolio to a single trade. If the market doesn't move in your favor, but indicators remain strong, you may choose to invest another 30% of your options portfolio on a second signal, and perhaps even on a third signal. By proceeding in this way, each time you enter the market in a better position, and usually the profit from the last trade will more than compensate for the loss from your first  trade.

We would like to show the motivations that led to the above trades; therefore, we have created what we call a 'Table of Motivation': 

Trade Volume Motivation Market Commentary on Members Home Page during the trade
Buy Call #1
12/05/2003
Was left opened
last week
Today’s largest VMA spike occurred around 1:45 p.m. It was clearly supportive to the downside. We believe that the markets are in an accumulation phase, “collecting” more supportive volume to prepare for a near-term up move.
Buy Call #2
12/09/2003
During the market's afternoon decline it generated a very large supportive VMA spike to the downside that began at 14:15 and didn't really subside until the end of the day. We therefore believe that the larger picture has not changed - the markets remain in an accumulation phase, preparing for a near-term up move.
Sell Call #1, 2
12/11/2003
During the market's afternoon rally it encountered some resistive volume to the upside at 14:15 and at 15:15. The only thing to watch out for is the fact that next Friday is a triple-witching day, which may cause some volatility in the short-term,

The same principles mentioned above also work for trading the NASDAQ 100, S&P 100, Dow Jones, as well as other  indexes.

Here is a detailed list of our investor's trades, which netted the above returns:

Date Trade Strike Expiration Contracts Contract
Price
Amount Profit
12/05/2003 Buy Call #1 $35 January 80 $1.3 -$10400  
12/11/2003 Sell Call #1 $35 January 80 $1.35 +$10800 +$400 (+3.8%)
12/09/2003 Buy Call #2 $35 January 120 $0.9 -$10800  
12/11/2003 Sell Call #2 $35 January 120 $1.35 +$16200 +$5,400

Total:

+$5,800

To see any of our past best trades, simply select from the list below.

Date Indicator
December 21, 2003 QQQQ Options
December 14, 2003 QQQQ Options
December 7, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 30, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 23, 2003 QQQQ Options
November 9, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 31, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 24, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 17, 2003 QQQQ Options
October 10, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
October 3, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 25, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 16, 2003 QQQQ Options
September 11, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
September 5, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 27, 2003 QQQQ Options
August 15, 2003 QQQQ Options
August 4, 2003 QQQQ Options
July 28, 2003 NASDAQ 100
July 25, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
July 12, 2003 NASDAQ 100
July 2, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
June 27, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
March 28, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
March 11, 2003 NASDAQ 100
March 4, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
February 12, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
February 4, 2003 S&P 500
January 29, 2003 S&P 500 (SPX)
January 24, 2003 S&P 500
January 22, 2003 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

To see any of our past best trades, simply select from the list below.

Date Indicator
December 30, 2002 NASDAQ 100
December 19, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
December 10, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 27, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 20, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
November 13, 2002 NASDAQ 100
November 6, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
November 1, 2002 NASDAQ 100
October 25, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
September 25, 2002 NASDAQ 100
September 18, 2002 S&P 500
September 6, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 21 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
August 14 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
August 7, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
July 31, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
July 24, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
July 17, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
July 10, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
June 26, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
June 14, 2002 S&P 500
June 12, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
June 5, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
May 31, 2002 S&P 500
May 29, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 22, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 17, 2002 S&P 500
May 15, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
May 8, 2002 S&P 500 (SPX)
May 3, 2002 NASDAQ 100
May 1, 2002 NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)
April 28, 2002 NASDAQ 100
April 22, 2002 NASDAQ 100
April 3, 2002 S&P 500
February 25, 2002 S&P 500
February 8, 2002 NASDAQ 100
January 30, 2002 NASDAQ 100
QQQQ Trading System
QQQQ, SPY and DIA trading signals for conservative mid- and long-7 term traders ...

QQQQ Signals
Past 6 Months

10%

20%

Compound Compound
Margin

As of 3/11/2010


NASDAQ Polling Service
Nasdaq in a month?

Up

The same as now

Down

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