|
|
 |
Best Short-Term Trade
December 14th, 2003
Our short-term index options trader traded QQQQ
options for this best trade of the week, but one could have traded
NASDAQ 100 index shares or options using the same method. These trades were based on strong volume
indicators and Market Commentary.
This week's Best Trade of the week
is a continuation on our
previous best trade
where we left a QQQQ Call position open.
NOTE: This chart of the week is meant
primarily for educational
purposes. We don't recommend that our customers follow these exact trades.
We suggest that you develop your own trading style and try doing some paper
trading before using our volume analytics.
|
Security |
Return |
| Call #1 (QQQQ January) |
+3.85% |
| Call #2 (QQQQ January) |
+50.00% |
|
Total Profit: |
+$5,800 |

Even though all the above trades were not entirely without
risk, we came out on top with a profit of
$5,800
Why have you closed all your open call
position while at the time stating in your market commentary that the index will
probably move up?
We have closed all our call positions in order to play it
safe. Keep in mind that in the short-term, the markets may encounter increased
volatility, for instance the coming Friday is a triple-witching-day. Also,
remember that options lose part of their (time) value as they approach
expiration. We believe it is sometimes better to take a smaller (but
guaranteed profit now), rather than hanging on for higher (potential) profits,
especially when trading options.
Notes:
If you trade options, we recommend you invest only a small
portion of your assets - an amount that will fit your personal trading needs
and risk tolerance. In our opinion, that amount should be about 10% of your
total portfolio; it should never exceed 30%.
At the same time, we do not recommend that you commit more than 30% of your
options portfolio to a single trade. If the market doesn't move in your favor,
but indicators remain strong, you may choose to invest another 30% of your
options portfolio on a second signal, and perhaps even on a third signal. By
proceeding in this way, each time you enter the market in a better position,
and usually the profit from the last trade will more than compensate for the
loss from your first trade.
We would like to show the motivations
that led to the above trades; therefore, we have created what we call a 'Table
of Motivation':
|
Trade |
Volume Motivation |
Market Commentary on Members Home Page during
the trade |
Buy Call #1
12/05/2003
Was left opened
last week |
Today’s largest VMA spike occurred around 1:45 p.m. It was clearly
supportive to the downside. |
We
believe that the markets are in an accumulation phase, “collecting” more
supportive volume to prepare for a near-term up move. |
Buy Call #2
12/09/2003 |
During the market's afternoon decline it generated a very large supportive
VMA spike to the downside that began at 14:15 and didn't really subside
until the end of the day. |
We
therefore believe that the larger picture has not changed - the markets
remain in an accumulation phase, preparing for a near-term up move. |
Sell Call #1, 2
12/11/2003 |
During the market's afternoon rally it encountered some resistive volume to
the upside at 14:15 and at 15:15. |
The
only thing to watch out for is the fact that next Friday is a
triple-witching day, which may cause some volatility in the short-term,
|
The same principles mentioned above also work
for trading the NASDAQ 100, S&P 100, Dow Jones, as well as other
indexes.
Here is a detailed list of our investor's trades, which netted
the above returns:
|
Date |
Trade |
Strike |
Expiration |
Contracts |
Contract
Price |
Amount |
Profit |
| 12/05/2003 |
Buy Call #1 |
$35 |
January |
80 |
$1.3 |
-$10400 |
|
| 12/11/2003 |
Sell Call #1 |
$35 |
January |
80 |
$1.35 |
+$10800 |
+$400 (+3.8%) |
| 12/09/2003 |
Buy Call #2 |
$35 |
January |
120 |
$0.9 |
-$10800 |
|
| 12/11/2003 |
Sell Call #2 |
$35 |
January |
120 |
$1.35 |
+$16200 |
+$5,400 |
|
Total: |
+$5,800 |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 21, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 14,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
December 7,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 30,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 23,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
November 9, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 31,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 24,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 17,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
October 10,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
October 3, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 25,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 16, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 11,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 5,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 27, 2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 15,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 4,
2003 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 28, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 25, 2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 12, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
July 2, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
June 27, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 28,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
March 11,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
March 4, 2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 12,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
February 4,
2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 29,
2003 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
January 24, 2003 |
S&P 500 |
|
January 22,
2003 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
December 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
December 19,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
December 10, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 27, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 20,
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
November 13, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
November 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
November 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
October 25,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
September 25, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
September 18, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
September 6,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 21
2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
August 14
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
August 7,
2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
July 31, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 24, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(NDX) |
|
July 17, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
July 10, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
June 26, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 14, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
June 12, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
June 5, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 31, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 29, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 17, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
May 15, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
May 8, 2002 |
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
May 3, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
May 1, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100
(QQQQ) |
|
April 28, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 22, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
April 3, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 25, 2002 |
S&P 500 |
|
February 8, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
January 30, 2002 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
|
 |
|