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Best Short-Term Trade
March 28th, 2004

Our short-term index options trader traded QQQQ options for this week’s “best trade of the week”, but could instead have traded NASDAQ 100 index shares or options using the same method. This trade was based on our volume indicators and our Market Commentary.

NOTE: We discuss our “best trades of the week” here mainly for educational purposes. The trading examples we illustrate are based principally on our volume indicators and market commentaries. Our main intent is to show you how you can apply our volume indicators and to explain the specific correlations that exist between volume spikes and the movement of the indexes. We do not mean to imply that you should follow our exact trades, but rather wish to suggest that you may make use of our volume analytics to develop your own trading style. We also urge you to paper trade before committing your money to the markets.

Nasdaq 100 stock chart

Even though the trades shown above were not entirely without risk, they resulted in a profit of $400

Should I Trade Options?

Only very experienced traders should trade options because of the high risk involved. You can always trade index shares instead of options and still make a decent profit, but returns will not be as large.

In the following, we would like to show you the motivating factors that led us to take above trades. For this purpose, we have created what we call a 'Table of Trade Motivators':
 
Trade Volume Motivation
Buy Call #1
03/05/2004
Was left opened

last week
With the decline came a large supportive VMA spike to the downside, which peaked at 11:15. This supportive VMA spike was larger than the previous resistive VMA spike.
Buy Call #2
03/08/2004
Was left opened

last week
By 11:00 there was a moderate supportive VMA spike to the downside, but it was only enough to halt the market's decline until 12:00, at which point the market began its decline anew and with more veracity. At 12:45 the market ran into a slightly larger supportive VMA spike to the downside, but again this was only enough to cause a short reaction in the market. After 13:15 the market's decline quickened, but at 14:15 it hit upon a very large supportive VMA spike to the downside.
Buy Call #3
03/10/2004
Was left opened

last week
At 11:45 the market encountered moderate supportive VMA spike to the downside, but this supportive VMA spike only enabled the market to halt its descent temporarily. By 13:00 the market began to move lower again, but this time the descent was more pronounced than earlier on in the day. During the market's decline it encountered a very large supportive VMA spike to the downside at 13:30.
Sell Call #1,2,3
Buy Put #4
3/18/2004
As the market declined, it didn't encounter much supportive volume at all until approximately 12:30 where a large supportive VMA spike to the downside, combined with the al Qaeda news, helped cause the market to move quickly higher. During the market's quick ascent, it encountered a very large and sharp resistive VMA spike to the upside, which caused the market to begin moving lower after 13:15.
Sell Put #4
Buy Call #5
03/22/2004
The market continued to decline throughout the morning and early afternoon, until about 13:30 where it began to generate a large amount of supportive volume to the downside. This supportive volume was concentrated in two large VMA spikes: the first at 13:30 and the second at 14:15.
Sell Call #5
03/25/2004
Two large and broad resistive VMA spikes were seen during the day -- the first at 12:45 and the second at 13:30. These spikes were bigger than any seen in quite some time, but they were only able to impact the market by slowing the market's advance for a short period. Despite the resistive volume today, the market continued its advance and closed at its highs for the day. By the end of the day the market had generated another moderately large amount of resistive volume to the upside.

The principles discussed above also apply when trading the NASDAQ 100, the S&P 100, the Dow Jones, as well as other indexes.

These are the trades which netted the returns shown above:


Date
Trade Strike Expiration Contracts Contract
Price
Amount Profit
03/05/2004 Buy Call #1 $36 April 100 $1.5 -$15000  
3/18/2004 Sell Call #1 $36 April 100 $0.7 +$7000 -$8,000
03/08/2004 Buy Call #2 $36 April 70 $1 -$7000  
3/18/2004 Sell Call #2 $36 April 70 $0.7 +$4900 -$2,100
03/10/2004 Buy Call #3 $36 April 100 $0.8 -$8000  
3/18/2004 Sell Call #3 $36 April 100 $0.7 +$7000 -$1,000
03/18/2004 Buy Put #4 $35 April 100 $0.75 -$7500  
03/22/2004 Sell Put #4 $35 April 100 $1.4 +$14000 +$6,500
03/22/2004 Buy Call #5 $35 April 100 $0.5 -$5000  
03/25/2004 Sell Call #5 $35 April 100 $1 +$10000 +$5,000

Total:

+$400

To see any of our past best trades, simply select from the list below.

Date Indicator
September 25, 2004 QQQQ Options
September 18, 2004 QQQQ Options
September 10, 2004 QQQQ Options
September 9, 2004 QQQQ Options
September 7, 2004 QQQQ Options
September 2, 2004 QQQQ Options
August 31, 2004 QQQQ Options
August 19, 2004 QQQQ Options
August 18, 2004 QQQQ Options
August 15, 2004 QQQQ Options
August 5, 2004 QQQQ Options
August 3, 2004 QQQQ Options
July 31 2004 QQQQ Options
July 21, 2004 QQQQ Options
July 14, 2004 QQQQ Options
July 13, 2004 QQQQ Options
July 1, 2004 QQQQ Options
June 23, 2004 QQQQ Options
June 20, 2004 QQQQ Options
June 6, 2004 QQQQ Options
May 30, 2004 QQQQ Options
May 25, 2004 QQQQ Options
May 20, 2004 QQQQ Options
May 16, 2004 QQQQ Options
May 12, 2004 QQQQ Options
May 09, 2004 QQQQ Options
April 29, 2004 QQQQ Options
April 22, 2004 QQQQ Options
April 18, 2004 QQQQ Options
April 10, 2004 QQQQ Options
April 6, 2004 S&P 500 Options
March 28, 2004 QQQQ Options
March 14, 2004 QQQQ Options
March 7, 2004 QQQQ Options
February 29, 2004 QQQQ Options
February 22, 2004 QQQQ Options
February 15, 2004 QQQQ Options
February 8, 2004 QQQQ Options
February 1, 2004 QQQQ Options
January 25, 2004 QQQQ Options
January 18, 2004 QQQQ Options
January 12, 2004 QQQQ Options
QQQQ Trading System
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Past 6 Months

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As of 7/2/2009


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