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Best Short-Term Trade
May 16th, 2004
This "Trade of the week" was based
on our volume indicators.
This week's “best trade of the week”
is a continuation of the
previous week’s best trade,
where we left a QQQQ Call position open.
This trade was closed with
18% of profit.
|
Security |
Return |
| Call #1 (QQQQ July) |
+18.52% |
| Call #2 (QQQQ July) |
+18.52% |
|
Total Profit: |
+$2,500 |
|
Nasdaq 100 Indicator
 |
Even though the trades shown above were not entirely without risk, they
resulted in a profit of $2,500
Notes:
When do you normally close a particular “Best Trade of the Week”?
Under normal circumstances, we exit from a trade when we see a clear,
unambiguous volume signal. The actual signal we look for must not necessarily
be as pronounced as the one that got us into the trade. In order to play it
safe, we sometimes even terminate a trade in the absence of a volume signal -
for instance when we are up by 20 - 30%, or in the presence of certain market
affecting factors , such as news on geopolitical events, Fed announcements,
options expiration, and others. In other words, there are certain situations
where we may ignore our volume indicators. It is our belief that in options
trading, it is often better to take a quick profit rather than overstaying and
putting the entire investment at risk.
In last week’s “Best Trade of the Week”, you left a trade open. Why was
this not the case this week?
This week, we did not receive a strong volume signal that would have prompted
us to leave a trade open. We would like to remind you that options trading is
very risky. We believe it's often better to make fewer trades; also, we
initiate trades only in the presence of strong, unambiguous signals.
In the following, we would like to show you the
motivating factors that led us to take above trades. For this purpose, we have
created what we call a 'Table of Trade Motivators':
|
Trade |
Volume Motivation |
Buy Call #1
05/12/2004
Was left opened
last week |
After initially
opening lower, the market began to quickly move lower, generating increasing
amounts of supportive volume to the downside in the process. By 11:15, the
market encountered a large supportive VMA spike to the downside, but the
result of this initial supportive volume spike was to only slow the market's
decline. As such, the market continued to move lower until approximately
12:15 where the market generated even more supportive volume to the
downside. |
Buy Call #2
05/12/2004
Was left opened
last week |
The market
continued its decline until it ran into another very large supportive VMA
spike to the downside at 14:00. |
Sell Calls #1,2
05/14/2004 |
By 13:00, we
noted a large resistive VMA spike to the upside; while it did not cause an
immediate reversal, it slowed the ongoing advance. At 14:15, the market
generated another moderately resistive VMA spike to the upside. (The
upcoming options expiration on Friday, May 21 will likely bring more
volatility.) |
These are the trades which netted the returns
shown above:
Date |
Trade |
Strike |
Expiration |
Contracts |
Contract
Price |
Amount |
Profit |
| 05/12/2004 |
Buy Call #1 |
$35 |
July |
50 |
$1.35 |
-$6750 |
|
| 05/14/2004 |
Sell Call #1 |
$35 |
July |
50 |
$1.6 |
+$8000 |
+$1,250 |
| 05/12/2004 |
Buy Call #2 |
$35 |
July |
50 |
$1.35 |
-$6750 |
|
| 05/14/2004 |
Sell Call #2 |
$35 |
July |
50 |
$1.6 |
+$8000 |
+$1,250 |
|
Total: |
+$2,500
(+18.5%) |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
September 25, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 18, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 10, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 9, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 7, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 2, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 31, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 19, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 18, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 15, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 5, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 3, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 31 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 21, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 14, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 13, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 1, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
June 23, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
June 20, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
June 6, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 30, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 25, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 20, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 16, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 12, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 09, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 29,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 22,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 18,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 10,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 6, 2004 |
S&P 500
Options |
|
March 28,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
March 14,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
March 7, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
February 29,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
February 22,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 15,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
February 8,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
February 1,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
January 25,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
January 18,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
January 12,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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