|
|
 |
Best Short-Term Trade
June 6th, 2004
NOTE: We discuss our “best
trades of the week” here mainly for educational purposes. The trading
examples we illustrate are based principally on our volume indicators and market
commentaries. Our main intent is to show you how you can apply our volume
indicators and to explain the specific correlations that exist between volume
spikes and the movement of the indexes. We do not mean to imply that you should
follow our exact trades, but rather wish to suggest that you may make use of our
volume analytics to develop your own trading style. We also urge you to paper
trade before committing your money to the markets.
For this week’s “trade of the
week”, "Buy QQQQ Puts #1,2" are opened
in order to close it later with profit if the
index moves in our favor.
|
Nasdaq 100 Indicator
 |
Sometimes your trades involve larger, sometimes smaller amounts of trading
capital. Is this a marketing strategy or a trading tactic?
The varying amount of capital we allocate to each "Trade of the Week" is not
random, nor is it a marketing gimmick. The amount we invest in a particular
trade correlates directly to our interpretation of a specific volume signal. The
stronger a signal, the more contracts we buy. Conversely, when our volume
indicators are not as strong, or when other factors come into play (e.g., the
geopolitical situation, options expirations, FED announcements, and others), we
enter a trade with a smaller number of options contracts. We may hold back some
cash (i.e., “keep some powder dry”) in anticipation of being able to purchase
further contracts at “better” price in the near future. For instance, better
prices may result from a “delayed volume reaction”, a situation where index
movements do not show an immediate reaction to the appearance of a (significant)
volume spike. Another reason why we may hold back some capital when faced with a
weaker than usual volume signal is if we think the market could turn against us
– in such a situation, a lower capital investment has the benefit of reducing
potential losses.
In the following, we would like to show you the
motivating factors that led us to take above trades. For this purpose, we have
created what we call a 'Table of Trade Motivators':
|
Trade |
Volume Motivation |
Buy Put #1
06/02/2004
Left opened |
As the market
began to move higher, it encountered a moderately resistive VMA spike to the
upside at 12:30. The resistive volume did not reverse the advance, but
managed to slow its pace. The market continued higher through to 13:30, when
we noted a second moderately resistive VMA spike to the upside. During the
market's afternoon rally, it encountered a moderately large resistive VMA
spike to the upside, which came to a peak at 14:30. |
Buy Put #2
06/04/2004
Left opened |
The market
opened with a substantial gap up. During the advance, a very large resistive
VMA spike to the upside was generated at 12:45. |
These are the trades which netted the returns
shown above:
Date |
Trade |
Strike |
Expiration |
Contracts |
Contract
Price |
Amount |
Profit |
| 06/02/2004 |
Buy Put #1 |
$37 |
July |
50 |
$1.35 |
-$6750 |
|
| 06/04/2004 |
Buy Put #2 |
$37 |
July |
75 |
$1.35 |
-$10125 |
|
|
Total: |
+$0 |
For this week’s “trade of the week”,
"Buy QQQQ Puts #1,2" are opened
in order to close it later with profit if the index moves in our favor.
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
September 25, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 18, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 10, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 9, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 7, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
September 2, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 31, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 19, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 18, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 15, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 5, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 3, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 31 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 21, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 14, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 13, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 1, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
June 23, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
June 20, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
June 6, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 30, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 25, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 20, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 16, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 12, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
May 09, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 29,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 22,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 18,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 10,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 6, 2004 |
S&P 500
Options |
|
March 28,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
March 14,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
March 7, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
February 29,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
February 22,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
February 15,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
February 8,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
February 1,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
January 25,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
January 18,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
January 12,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
|