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Best Short-Term Trade
July 1st, 2004
This "Short-Term Trade" was based
on our volume indicators.
This week's “best trade of the week”
is a continuation of the
previous week’s best trade,
where we left a QQQQ Put position open.
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NASDAQ 100 Indicator
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NOTE: We discuss our “best trades of the week” here mainly for
educational purposes. The trading examples we illustrate are based
principally on our volume indicators and market commentaries. Our main
intent is to show you how you can apply our volume indicators and to explain the
specific correlations that exist between volume spikes and the movement of the
indexes. We do not mean to imply that you should follow our exact trades, but
rather wish to suggest that you may make use of our volume analytics to develop
your own trading style. We also urge you to paper trade before committing your
money to the markets.
|
Security |
Return |
| Put #1 (QQQQ August
(QQQQTL)) |
0.00% |
| Put #2 (QQQQ August
(QQQQTL)) |
+37.50% |
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Total Profit: |
+$3,375 |
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NASDAQ 100 Indicator
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VMA:
Our Volume Moving Average (VMA) is a key indicator that we use abundantly
in our charts and technical analysis. The VMA refers to the volume of a
security, commodity or index averaged over a given period of time. The
intervals used in calculating a particular VMA can be as short as a few
minutes or as long as several years. In calculating the VMA, we use a
so-called “simple” moving average, where as the newest value is added, the
last variable of the series is simply dropped, but all values are given
equal weight. For example, a 5-minute moving average consists of the last 5
volume bars, each representing the volume activity of one minute, that are
summed up and then divided by. After the next minute has elapsed, a new
value is added to the 5-minute VMA, and the oldest value is dropped from the
calculation.
All your trades appear to be based on options, but since I don’t trade
options, can I still use your volume indicators?
Yes, absolutely! You can also trade indexes, for example, since we apply
our volume indicators to the major U.S. indexes. We do this because indexes
best describe the mood of the market as a whole. Regardless of what you
trade, a particular index or sub-index, stocks, options, or futures, most
trading vehicles tend to move in concert with the broad market. As a rule,
the market dictates the direction of a particular security – it is never the
other way. It therefore makes sense to get a good grasp on what is happening
at the index or stock exchange level, and we have found volume analytics to
be an excellent vehicle to make that determination.
In the following, we would like to show you the
motivating factors that led us to take above trades. For this purpose, we have
created what we call a 'Table of Trade Motivators':
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Trade |
Volume Motivation |
Buy Put #1
06/23/2004 |
We noted a
large resistive VMA spike to the upside, which came to a peak by 12:15,
however, the only impact of this resistive VMA spike on the market was
to cause a temporary slowdown in the market's advance. This resistive
volume to the upside did cause a small move down in the market. During
the market's continued rally, it encountered further resistive volume to
the upside at 14:15. By 14:30 the market's rally continued once again
and with even more gusto as the market moved up even more rapidly.
During this late afternoon rally the market generated even more
resistive volume to the upside, which came to a peak at 15:15 and at the
end of the day. Despite all the resistive volume generated throughout
the day, the market was still able to close near its highs for the
session. |
Buy Put #2
06/30/2004 |
As the
market moved higher, it encountered some resistive volume to the upside
at 12:45 and at 13:30, but this resistive volume had relatively little
impact on the market other than to slow its already slow advance.
However, by 14:15, as the Fed made their rate announcement, the market
quickly sprang to life, initially moving sharply higher and generating a
substantially large resistive VMA spike to the upside in the process.
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Sell Put #1,2
07/01/2004 |
Immediately
after gapping lower this morning, the market continued to move lower.
The market's decline continued at about the same pace throughout the
remainder of the morning hours -- even a moderately large supportive VMA
spike to the downside at 11:15 caused a barely noticeable change in the
market's trend. By 12:15, the market generated a moderately large
supportive VMA spike to the downside, the initial impact of which was to
cause the market to begin moving higher. However, this move up was
rather short-lived. As the market began to decline once again, it
generated a huge supportive VMA spike to the downside at 14:00
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These are the trades which netted
the returns shown above:
Date |
Trade |
Strike |
Expiration |
Contracts |
Contract
Price |
Amount |
Profit |
| 06/23/2004 |
Buy Put #1 |
$38 |
August (QQQQTL) |
75 |
$1.65 |
-$12375 |
|
|
07/01/2004 |
Sell Put #1 |
$38 |
August (QQQQTL) |
75 |
$1.65 |
+$12375 |
$0 |
| 06/30/2004 |
Buy Put #2 |
$38 |
August (QQQQTL) |
75 |
$1.2 |
-$9000 |
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|
07/01/2004 |
Sell Put #2 |
$38 |
August (QQQQTL) |
75 |
$1.65 |
+$12375 |
+$3,375 |
|
Total: |
3,375 |
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
September 25, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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September 18, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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September 10, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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September 9, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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September 7, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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September 2, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 31, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 19, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 18, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 15, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 5, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 3, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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July 31 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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July 21, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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July 14, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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July 13, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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July 1, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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June 23, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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June 20, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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June 6, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 30, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 25, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 20, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 16, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 12, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 09, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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April 29,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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April 22,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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April 18,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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April 10,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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April 6, 2004 |
S&P 500
Options |
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March 28,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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March 14,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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March 7, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 29,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 22,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 15,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 8,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 1,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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January 25,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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January 18,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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January 12,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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