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Best Short-Term Trade
July 14th, 2004
This "Short-Term Trade" was based
on our volume indicators.
This “best Short-term trade”
is a continuation of the
previous best trade,
where we left a QQQQ Call position open.
NOTE: We discuss our “best trades” here mainly for educational
purposes. The trading examples we illustrate are based principally on our
volume indicators and market commentaries. Our main intent is to show you
how you can apply our volume indicators and to explain the specific correlations
that exist between volume spikes and the movement of the indexes. We do not mean
to imply that you should follow our exact trades, but rather wish to suggest
that you may make use of our volume analytics to develop your own trading style.
We also urge you to paper trade before committing your money to the markets.
For this “best trade”,
"Buy QQQQ Calls #1, 2" are opened
in order to close it later with profit if the
index moves in our favor.
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NASDAQ 100 Indicator
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When do you normally close a particular “Best Trade”?
Under normal circumstances, we exit from a trade when we see a clear,
unambiguous volume signal. The actual signal we look for must not
necessarily be as pronounced as the one that got us into the trade. In order
to play it safe, we sometimes even terminate a trade in the absence of a
volume signal - for instance when we are up by 20 - 30%, or in the presence
of certain market affecting factors, such as news on geopolitical events,
Fed announcements, options expiration, and others. In other words, there are
certain situations where we may ignore our volume indicators. It is our
belief that in options trading, it is often better to take a quick profit
rather than overstaying and putting the entire investment at risk.
Chart Different Views:
To put the magnitude of a volume spike in perspective, it is essential to
look at charts spanning various time periods. For instance, while a volume
spike may look imposing and seem critical on 1-day or 5-day chart, that same
spike may not loom as large on a 30-day chart, and it might perhaps even
seem insignificant on a 60-day chart. Volume spikes that appear noteworthy
on short-term charts must thus always be placed in the context of the higher
time periods, so that misinterpretations of their potential impacts on mid-
or long-term trends can be avoided. For instance, a prominent spike
appearing on a 5-minute chart could well affect an index in the short term,
but it may not necessarily have much of an impact on the prevailing
long-term trend.
Your trade horizon appears to apply only for the short-and mid-term. What
about the long-term? Do your indicators work for long-term time frames?
Yes, they do. In fact, our indicators work for any time frame. In our
“Best Trade” feature, we generally show short-term trades, because our
trades are based on options, and it is our strong opinion that the
short-term time frame is the best way to trade options. If you are more
interested in trading the mid- and long-term, visit the "Charts
Example" section. You will find several examples there that apply to
mid-and long-term trades.
In the following, we would like to show you the
motivating factors that led us to take above trades. For this purpose, we have
created what we call a 'Table of Trade Motivators':
|
Trade |
Volume Motivation |
Buy Call #1
07/13/2004
Was left opened
in previous
"Best Trade" |
As the
market declined again, it produced a large supportive VMA spike to the
downside, which came to a peak by approximately 13:30. This large
supportive VMA spike to the downside was enough to halt the market's
decline. As the market progressed throughout the remainder of the day,
it encountered relatively little resistive volume at all. In fact, the
majority of the volume throughout the day turned out to be supportive
volume to the downside. |
Buy Call #2
07/14/2004
Left Opened |
During the
afternoon market's decline, it encountered some supportive volume to the
downside at 12:00, but this only caused a short-term reprieve in the
market's descent, as the market continued to move lower shortly
afterwards. However, by 13:30, the market produced a very large
supportive VMA spike to the downside, which was actually larger than any
of the VMA spikes we have seen in over a week. However, despite the size
of this supportive VMA spike to the downside, the market only moved
higher for a short period and began to move lower shortly after 14:15.
As such, the market continued its decline for the remainder of the
afternoon, but in doing so it also generated further supportive volume
to the downside shortly before closing. |
Date |
Trade |
Strike |
Expiration |
Contracts |
Contract
Price |
Amount |
Profit |
| 07/13/2004 |
Buy Call #1 |
$35 |
September (QQQQII) |
75 |
$1.75 |
-$13125 |
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| 07/14/2004 |
Buy Call #2 |
$35 |
September (QQQQII) |
75 |
$1.65 |
-$12375 |
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Total: |
0 |
For this week’s “trade of the week”,
"Buy QQQQ Calls #1, 2" are opened
in order to close it later with profit if the index moves in our favor.
To see
any of our past best trades, simply select from
the list below.
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
September 25, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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September 18, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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September 10, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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September 9, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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September 7, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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September 2, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 31, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 19, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 18, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 15, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
August 5, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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August 3, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 31 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 21, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
|
July 14, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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July 13, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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July 1, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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June 23, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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June 20, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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June 6, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 30, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 25, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 20, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 16, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 12, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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May 09, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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April 29,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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April 22,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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April 18,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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April 10,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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April 6, 2004 |
S&P 500
Options |
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March 28,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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March 14,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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March 7, 2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 29,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 22,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 15,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 8,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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February 1,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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January 25,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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January 18,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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January 12,
2004 |
QQQQ Options |
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