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Index Last %
NYSE 9327.97 -0.65%
NASDAQ 2445.52 -0.23%
AMEX 2347.54 -0.02%
DJI 12745.88 -0.94%
DJT 5193.98 -0.59%
DJU 508.79 -0.02%
NASDAQ 100 1960.29 -0.33%
S&P 100 639.2 -0.73%
S&P 400 853.93 0.08%
S&P 500 1388.28 -0.67%
S&P 600 379.42 -0.01%

As of May 9,2008 22:35

@ MarketVolume.com

"Best Trade" Newsletters - Options Trading based on S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

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SPY

"Best Trade" Newsletter (November 23, 2007)

This "best trade" is a continuation of previous "Best trade" newsletter posted (sent to MV subscribers) on November 12, 2007.

Chart 1:S&P 500 60-day 15-day SBV(20)
 
 

Table 1: Table of Trade Motivators

DateTrading
Decision
Motivation
11/1/2007 Advance/decline volume and issues ratios hit critically low levels: 0.03 A/D issues ratio and 0.07 A/D volume ratio for S&P 500
11/6/2007Buy CallsSBV oscillator advanced above minus 20% (after having been below that level) based on the 60-day SBV(16) chart. This reveals that there is a chance of move up.

Since the S&P 500 index shows bigger then NASDAQ 100 accumulation of the buying volume we decided to go with SPY options.

11/7/2007 Advance/decline volume and issues ratios hit critically low levels. We saw following readings:  0.12 A/D issues ratio and 0.20 A/D volume ratio for NASDAQ 100, 0.03 A/D issues ratio and 0.06 A/D volume ratio for S&P 500, 0.03 A/D issues ratio and 0.01 A/D volume ratio for DJI

High-magnitude Buying volume surges were noted in all market sectors. The volume on the NASDAQ 100 exceeded the average daily volume over the last 10 session by 8%. On the S&P 500, volume was 11% higher than the average daily volume seen over the last 10 session. On the Dow, volume was 8% higher.

11/8/2007 High-magnitude Buying volume surges were noted in all market sectors. The volume on the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 indexes exceeded the average daily volume over the last 10 session by 40%. On the Dow, volume was 41% higher.
11/12/2007Buy CallsSBV oscillator started to advanced based on the 60-day SBV(20) chart. This reveals that there is a chance of a short-term move up.
11/19/2007 Advance/decline volume and issues ratios hit critically low levels. We saw following readings:  0.14 A/D issues ratio and 0.10 A/D volume ratio for S&P 500, 0.14 A/D issues ratio and 0.04 A/D volume ratio for DJI

SBV oscillator started to advanced based on the 60-day SBV(20) chart.

11/20/2007 High-magnitude Buying volume surges were noted in the S&p 500 and DJI sectors. The volume on the S&P 500 indexes exceeded the average daily volume over the last 10 session by 10%. On the Dow, volume was 7% higher.
11/23/2007Buy CallsSBV oscillator started to advanced based on the 60-day SBV(20) chart. This reveals that there is a chance of a move up.

Table 2: Details of the trades

DateTradeStrikeExpirationContractsContract
Price

11/06/2007

Buy SYHLU Calls$151Dec, 200720$4.75

11/12/2007

Buy SFBLP Calls$146Dec, 200730$3.95

11/23/2007

Buy SFBLP Calls$146Dec, 200750$2.64

11/23/2007
HGH Associated Traders
Disclaimer: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only - it does not constitute trading advice, nor does it make or imply any market trend predictions. This newsletter illustrates examples based principally on MarketVolume®'s index volume indicators and advance/decline (AD) indicators. We do not mean to imply that you should follow our exact trades, but rather wish to suggest that you may make use of our analytics to develop your own trading style.


About "Best Trade" Newsletters

The “Best Trades” newsletter (also simply referred to as Best Trades) was developed by a group of independent traders who have a close affiliation with MarketVolume™ (a service provider of real-time volume charts). Wishing to share his experiences of trading with volume-based indicators, one of the traders came up with the idea of starting a newsletter.

Remember:

There is no market without price movement,
there is no price movement without volume

The idea took shape and by 2001, we started distributing Best Trades on a regular basis. Today, this newsletter continues to be highly popular and is still available at no charge. If you would like to sign up for this FREE service, please click here.

Please be aware that Best Trades was designed for educational purposes only. It does not provide signals for trading index options, nor does it make any predictions as to where the markets are likely headed.

Because Best Trades has a long history (we began distributing the newsletter in 2001), an extensive archive of trades is available. Click here to browse through our archive of all newsletters.

Looking through the archive, you will notice that Best Trades categorizes two types of trades:

  1. “Past trades” or “closed” trades: These are trades that were closed a few days before the latest issue of Best Trades was sent out. Some of the closed trades we discuss were made by our affiliate traders, some by MarketVolume™ subscribers, who wanted to share their successes using our volume-based trading techniques;
  2. “Real-time” or “open” trades: These are trades that are still active at the time the most current issue of Best Trades appears. The success of an open trade cannot be judged until a later date, although we can of course assess its “performance to date”.

    The main reason we started including “open trades” in our newsletter is in response to an argument made by several of our subscribers. They reasoned that by showing and discussing only closed (past) trades, we were in effect basing the value of our trading methodology solely on historical performances. Not wishing to “avoid” the challenge of assessing trades in real-time (which is after all the main justification for our real-time JavaVolume™ charts, see MarketVolume.com), we opted to include some open trades in the newsletter. In this way, we can show Best Trades readers that volume-based technical analysis works just as well in real time.

    To assess the performance of a “real-time” trade addressed in a current edition of Best Trades, you may chose to monitor the trade yourself, or you can read about it in a subsequent issue of the newsletter, when the trade will have been closed.

It is imperative that you understand that our newsletter was designed for educational purposes. When we leave a trade open, we strive to show the value of volume-based technical analysis, in real-time, as a trade unfolds. Yet, our open trades must never be seen as recommendations to follow (copy) a particular trade.

Remember:

Volume - your most powerful ally

So what about following our real-time trades, you ask? Our answer is that this might be risky business and therefore not a good idea.

There are several reasons:

  1. Our newsletter will definitively reach you with some delay (remember, this is a free service and we have xx thousand subscribers), so it might prove to be too late to open a position similar to ours. We follow a clear, step-by-step procedure for sending out trading information: First, data goes to our paying MarketVolume™ members, then to our MarketVolume™ Free Trial members, only after that to all other (free) subscribers;
  2. Another reason we advise against placing trades based on our newsletter is technical in nature. Because all of our trades are based on an analysis of the relationships between volume and price/index movements (which all change in rapid succession), you must absolutely have access to real-time volume charts (e.g., our JavaVolume™ charts) for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 indexes, at a very minimum.

Below you will find a history of the real-time (open) trades that we published in our "Best Trades" newsletter. Click here to browse through our archive of all newsletters.

Trade History of real-time (open) trades.
Indicator Trade Type Initiated on Closed on Return (%) Summary
Return (%)
SPY Options Buy Calls March 17, 2008 March 18, 2008 +35.6 +62.0
QQQQ Options Buy Calls February 22, 2008 February 26, 2008 +19.3 +26.4
QQQQ Options Buy Calls January 16, 2008 January 25, 2008 +7.1 +7.1
SPY Options Buy Calls Dec. 11, 12, 20, 2007 December 24, 2007 +63.0 +258.4
SPY Options Buy Calls November 6, 24, 2007 November 30, 2007 +20.0 +195.4
QQQQ Options Buy Calls September 24, 2007 October 16, 2007 -18.2 +175.4
QQQQ Options Buy Calls September 10, 2007 September 12, 2007 +17.1 +193.6
QQQQ Options Buy Calls August 16, 2007 August 21, 2007 +51.1 +176.5
QQQQ Options Buy Puts Jul 25, Aug 1, 2007 August 8, 2007 +14.2 +125.4
QQQQ Options Buy Puts July 17, 2007 July 18, 2007 +17.3 +111.2
QQQQ Options Buy Puts June 18, 2007 June 21, 2007 +11.4 +93.9
QQQQ Options Buy Calls May 15, 2007 May. 16, 2007 +9.7 +82.5
QQQQ Options Buy Puts May 9, 2007 May. 11, 2007 +20.6 +72.8
QQQQ Options Buy Puts Apr. 17, 26, 2007 May. 1, 2007 +12.5 +52.5
SPY Options Buy Calls Mar. 30, 2007 Apr. 3, 2007 +27.5 +40.0
QQQQ Options Buy Puts Mar. 23, 2007 Mar. 26, 2007 +12.5 +12.5
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Dec 12, 2006 Dec 13, 2006 0 +339.5
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Nov 28, 2006 Nov 29, 2006 +9.1 +339.5
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Nov 17, 2006 Nov 20, 2006 +3.7 +330.4
QQQQ Options Buy Puts Nov 16, 2006 Nov 17, 2006 +11.1 +326.7
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Nov 10, 2006 Nov 13, 2006 +18.7 +315.6
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Oct 24, 2006 Oct 25, 2006 +13.6 +296.9
QQQQ Options Buy Puts Sept 29, 2006 Oct 02, 2006 +28.0 +283.3
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Sep 06, 2006 Sept 11, 2006 +12.5 +255.3
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Aug 10, 2006 Aug 10, 2006 +7.4 +242.8
QQQQ Options Buy Puts Aug 09, 2006 Aug 10, 2006 +12.5 +235.4
QQQQ Options Buy Calls July 28, 2006 July 31, 2006 +12.5 +222.9
QQQQ Options Buy Puts July 27, 2006 July 28, 2006 +10.0 +210.4
QQQQ Options Buy Calls July 21, 2006 July 24, 2006 +16.6 +200.4
QQQQ Options Buy Puts July 20, 2006 July 21, 2006 +44.0 +183.8
QQQQ Options Buy Calls July 13, 2006 July 20, 2006 +3.4 +139.8
QQQQ Options Buy Puts July 12, 2006 July 13, 2006 +47.4 +136.4
QQQQ Options Buy Calls July 04, 2006 July 12, 2006 -13.5 +89.0
QQQQ Options Buy Calls June 15, 2006 July 03, 2006 +30.6 +102.5
QQQQ Options Buy Calls May 11, 2006 June 15, 2006 -81.6 +71.9
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Apr 26, 2006 Apr 27, 2006 +21.4 +153.5
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Apr 17, 2006 Apr 18, 2006 +37.5 +132.1
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Mar 28, 2006 Mar 29, 2006 +29.0 +94.6
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Mar 08, 2006 Mar 14, 2006 +33.7 +68.6
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Feb 02, 2006 Mar 03, 2006 +13.5 +34.9
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Jan 20, 2006 Jan 31, 2006 +21.4 +21.4
QQQQ Options Buy Calls Oct. 21, 2005 Nov. 2 2005 +26.5 +26.5
QQQQ Options Put #1,2,3 Sept. 9, 2004 Sept. 25, 2004 +3.6 +154.1
QQQQ Options Put #1 Sept. 2, 2004 Sept. 7, 2004 +16.7 +150.5
QQQQ Options Put #2 Aug 19, 2004 Aug 31, 2004 -17.8 +133.8
QQQQ Options Put #1 Aug 18, 2004 Aug 19, 2004 +10.7 +151.6
QQQQ Options Call #1,2 Aug 5, 2004 Aug 15, 2004 -56.5 +140.9
QQQQ Options Call #3 July 21, 2004 July 31, 2004 +8.8 +197.4
QQQQ Options Call #1,2 July 14,2004 July 21, 2004 +2.9 +188.6
QQQQ Options Put #1 June 23, 2004 July 1, 2004 0.0 +185.7
QQQQ Options Put #1,2 June 6, 2004 June 20, 2004 -18.5 +185.7
QQQQ Options Call #1 May 20, 2004 May 25, 2004 +36.0 +204.2
QQQQ Options Call #1,2 May 12, 2004 May 16, 2004 +18.5 +168.2
QQQQ Options Call #2 April 29, 2004 May 12, 2004 +19.2 +149.7
QQQQ Options Call #1 April 18, 2004 April 22, 2004 +20.0 +130.5
QQQQ Options Call #1,2,3 March 14, 2004 March 28, 2004 -37.0 +110.5
QQQQ Options Call #3 Feb. 29, 2004 March 7, 2004 +16.7 +147.5
QQQQ Options Call #3 Feb. 15, 2004 February 22, 2004 +32.1 +130.8
QQQQ Options Call #2 Feb. 8, 2004 February 15, 2004 +33.3 +98.7
QQQQ Options Call #1 Feb. 1, 2004 February 8, 2004 +15.4 +65.4
QQQQ Options Put #3,4 Jan. 25, 2004 February 1, 2004 +50.0 +50.0
QQQQ Options Call #1 Dec. 7, 2003 Dec 14, 2003 +3.8 +115.1
QQQQ Options Call #2 Nov 30, 2003 Dec. 7, 2003 +38.5 +111.3
QQQQ Options Put #1,2 Oct. 31, 2003 Nov. 23, 2003 +26.6 +72.8
QQQQ Options Call #3 Oct. 24, 2003 Oct. 31, 2003 +46.2 +46.2
shown only for the trades that were left opened

Additional notes:

Our aims are:

  • To show you how to apply our volume indicators to particular market situations;
  • To explain the specific correlations that exist between volume spikes and index movements.

We do not mean to imply that you should follow our trades; rather, we suggest that you may make use of our volume analytics in order to develop your own trading style. We also urge you to paper trade before committing your money to the markets.

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